657 Maria Elena Way

Cleveland, TX 77327

$176,392D

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · Built 2026 · SingleFamily · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,732/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,050
• Tax + insurance: −$459
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$364
• Net cashflow: $-150/mo
• Annual: $-1,803/yr
• Cap rate: 6.14%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.54%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.87%
• Cash to close: $56,042

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k. Condition is rated excellent.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $173k (1.8% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $171k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hardin El (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 607 students, 67% FRL); Hardin J H (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 316 students, 60% FRL); Hardin H S (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 394 students, 57% FRL).
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2304 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.1% vs local median 5.0% in Cleveland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?