657 Maria Elena Way · Cleveland, TX 77327

$176,392

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,411 sqft · SingleFamily · 33 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition Garage $10/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.5/5.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

NEW in the Santa Fe Village Community! Lennar Cottage Collection "Idlewood" Plan with Elevation "A". This single-level home showcases a spacious open floorplan shared between the kitchen, dining area and family room for easy entertaining, along with access to an outdoor space. An owner’s suite enjoys a private location in a rear corner of the home, complemented by an ensuite bathroom and walk-in closet. There are two secondary bedrooms at the front of the home, ideal for household members and overnight guests.

Key facts

• Walk-in closet
• Single-level home
• Outdoor space

Tags

• SINGLE-LEVEL HOME
• SPACIOUS OPEN FLOORPLAN
• OUTDOOR SPACE
• OWNER'S SUITE
• ENSUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

🏗️ New construction. The $176,392 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $200,150.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $176k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-232 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $167k (5.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $163k (7.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $163k (7.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#1,013 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Hardin ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #354 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Hardin El (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,335 of 4,322 statewide, top 33%, 607 students, 67% FRL); Hardin J H (math 28% / reading 44%, grade F, #805 of 1,662 statewide, top 50%, 316 students, 60% FRL); Hardin H S (math 67% / reading 57%, grade B-, #237 of 1,632 statewide, top 16%, 394 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.0%/yr); 2106 active listings in the ZIP; 1,321 units permitted in Liberty County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Liberty County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($171k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $125/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone A (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,877 (7.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.65%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.28%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $200,150
• List price: $176,392
• Delta: -11.87%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
996 County Road 2145	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,568 (+11%)	24mo	$150,000	$96	46
33776, 015 Highway 146, Cr 2701 N	1.86mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,312 (-7%)	6mo	$139,500	$106	39
339 County Road 2145	0.36mi	3/2.0	1,140 (-19%)	31mo	$265,000	$232	38
315 County Road 2148	1.11mi	3/1.0	1,296 (-8%)	46mo	$215,000	$166	27
132 County Road 2716	1.80mi	3/2.0	1,216 (-14%)	39mo	$39,000	$32	22
Rabbit Rdg	2.15mi	3/2.0	1,622 (+15%)	53mo	$500,000	$308	20
729 County Road 2141	2.06mi	3/1.0	1,200 (-15%)	26mo	$395,000	$329	16
2249 County Road 2134	1.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,120 (-21%)	30mo	$215,000	$192	15
—	2.25mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,641 (+16%)	52mo	$210,000	$128	15
427 County Road 2142 B	1.76mi	1/1.0 (-2)	1,200 (-15%)	17mo	$150,000	$125	12

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.19×
• Total profit: $-45,426
• Equity at exit: $29,843

10-year hold

• IRR: -15.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.09×
• Total profit: $-51,187
• Equity at exit: $17,305

Cash invested: $56,042 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 3 active · 6 under contract
• Median asking: $174,990 ($120/sqft)
• Median days on market: 20 d
• This list price: 67% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +18.4% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77327

• Home prices YoY: -5.2%
• Rents YoY: 4.0%
• Active inventory: 2106
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,629 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,050
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$250 /mo · $3,002/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$125 /mo · $1,502/yr
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$342
• Net cashflow: $-232

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,922

Max offer price $166,627

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-93	-5% $-163	+0% $-232	+5% $-301	+10% $-370
Rent	-10% $-360	-5% $-296	+0% $-232	+5% $-167	+10% $-103
Rate	-1.0pp $-131	-0.5pp $-181	base $-232	+0.5pp $-284	+1.0pp $-336

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $50,038
• Closing costs: $6,005
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Houston El Norte Prop Assoc.) with $120 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Has heating and coolingElectric coolingGas heating
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (first-floor living listed)
• Construction: Built in 2026Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with islandKitchen/dining and kitchen/family room combosPantry and walk-in pantryBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14x14)Two additional bedrooms on first floor (10x12 each)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryWalk-in pantryKitchen/dining combo6 total rooms

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-07-01
   days on market $176,392 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-30
   days on market $176,392 Active 32 DOM
3. 2026-06-29
   days on market $176,392 Active 31 DOM
4. 2026-06-28
   days on market $176,392 Active 30 DOM
5. 2026-06-27
   days on market $176,392 Active 29 DOM
6. 2026-06-26
   days on market $176,392 Active 28 DOM
7. 2026-06-24
   days on market $176,392 Active 26 DOM
8. 2026-06-22
   days on market $176,392 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-21
   days on market $176,392 Active 23 DOM
10. 2026-06-18
    days on market $176,392 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-17
    days on market $176,392 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-16
    days on market $176,392 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-06-15
    days on market $176,392 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-06-13
    days on market $176,392 Active 15 DOM
15. 2026-06-09
    days on market $176,392 Active 11 DOM
16. 2026-06-08
    days on market $176,392 Active 10 DOM
17. 2026-06-07
    days on market $176,392 Active 9 DOM
18. 2026-06-04
    days on market $176,392 Active 6 DOM
19. 2026-06-03
    days on market $176,392 Active 5 DOM
20. 2026-06-02
    days on market $176,392 Active 4 DOM
21. 2026-06-01
    days on market $176,392 Active 3 DOM
22. 2026-05-31
    days on market $176,392 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone A · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,545
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,212
• − Property taxes: −$3,002
• − Insurance: −$2,503
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,564
• − Management: −$1,564
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$5,823
• Taxable loss: −$6,242
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,498
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,282/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This single-level home in the Santa Fe Village Community is in excellent condition with a spacious open floorplan and modern finishes. It is move-in ready and offers a great value for both resale and rental.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can increase curb appeal and property value ↑
• Both Add smart home features — Smart home features can increase property value and attract tech-savvy buyers ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 47/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Hardin El F TX #1,335/4,322 Nat'l #17,861/41,679 Middle Hardin J H F TX #805/1,662 Nat'l #7,206/14,009 High Hardin H S B- TX #237/1,632 Nat'l #3,220/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hardin ISD
• NCES district ID: 4822380
• Math proficiency: 39% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $48,099
• Composite: 35.54/100
• National rank: #4907
• State rank: #354 of 826 in TX

C Composite livability gradescore 61/100

Livability — Cleveland

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #1013
• US rank: #17943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime D- Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety C User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Liberty County · 87,956 people
• City population: 17,208
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 42,685
• Household income: $62,219
• Rent vs Own: 14.4% rent · 85.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 11% of renters

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Population outlook (Liberty County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 87,956 people
• By 2030: 92,161 · +4.8%
• By 2040: 100,784 · +14.6%
• By 2050: 109,471 · +24.5%
• By 2075: 133,470 · +51.7%
• By 2100: 147,372 · +67.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.57)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 54% White 36% Two or more races 18% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 42%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1% Slovak 0%
• Foreign-born: 22% · Canada
• Languages at home: 51% English-only · Spanish 48%

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Political lean MEDSL · Liberty

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+61.6) · D 19.0% · R 80.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -17.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.7pp · 2024: -61.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+61.6 2020: R+59.7 2016: R+58.0 2012: R+53.3 2008: R+43.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -12.39%
• Current HPI: 224.9222
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.00%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Homeowners association (Houston El Norte Prop Assoc.) with $120 annual fee

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Has heating and coolingElectric coolingGas heating
• Home design: Residential propertyUnder construction (new construction)Single-story (first-floor living listed)
• Construction: Built in 2026Cement sidingComposition roofSlab foundation
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot setting

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen with islandKitchen/dining and kitchen/family room combosPantry and walk-in pantryBreakfast bar
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (14x14)Two additional bedrooms on first floor (10x12 each)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (gas)Central air conditioning (electric)
• Interior features: Breakfast barKitchen islandKitchen/family room comboPantryWalk-in pantryKitchen/dining combo6 total rooms

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $176,392 HARMLS