1163 Lake Dr

Waverly, FL 33877

$215,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · Built 1961 · SingleFamily · Pending · 94 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,680/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$295
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-96/mo
• Annual: $-1,148/yr
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $60,200

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (21.9% below list).
• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $168k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#817 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $215k implies a 368% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.