1163 Lake Dr · Waverly, FL 33877

$215,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,420 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 94 Days on market

Built 1961 10,724 sqft lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.9/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Appreciation +5.0/10.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.2/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Under contract-accepting backup offers. 2 Beds | 2 Baths | 1,620 Sq Ft | No HOA Back on the market due to buyer financing falling through! Heres your chance to enjoy the breathtaking views of Lake Lee and Lake Annie from this beautifully updated, move-in-ready home! Located on a spacious corner lot with mature fruit trees, this 2-bedroom, 2-bath property offers comfort, flexibility, and incredible outdoor living. The home features a remodeled kitchen, brand-new roof (2025), new windows, new water heater (2025), and numerous updates throughout. A bright and relaxing sunroom provides the perfect spot to unwind and take in the lake views. Need more space? This home offers plenty of room

Key facts

• Remodeled kitchen
• New water heater
• 20x30 workshop

Tags

• REMODELED KITCHEN
• NEW ROOF
• NEW WINDOWS
• NEW WATER HEATER
• BRIGHT SUNROOM
• 20X30 WORKSHOP

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot approximately 0.25 acre (95 x 100, paved road)
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage (20 x 30)
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank sewer; Broadband/high-speed internet available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Residential property; One story; Faces north; Entry level: One
• Construction: Stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as single-story
• Exterior features: Storage; Lake view

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Laundry inside

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-96 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $198k (7.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $168k (21.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $168k (21.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#817 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Polk (suburban): math 39% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #62 of 73 in FL (top 85%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 4 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 10,384 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (1,716 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $8k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $6k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
• Polk County population projected at +33% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 5, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 94 days — a 9% lower offer ($196k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $46k; list at $215k implies a 368% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→23/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $167,992 (21.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 94 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Built in 1961 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.76%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.91%
• DSCR: 0.92
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.33×
• Total profit: $19,795
• Equity at exit: $96,673

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.31×
• Total profit: $79,021
• Equity at exit: $148,985

Cash invested: $60,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 33877

• Active inventory: 4
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,680 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax from tax record: −$206 /mo · $2,469/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$353
• Net cashflow: $-96

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,801

Max offer price $198,105

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $26	-5% $-35	+0% $-96	+5% $-156	+10% $-217
Rent	-10% $-228	-5% $-162	+0% $-96	+5% $-29	+10% $37
Rate	-1.0pp $13	-0.5pp $-41	base $-96	+0.5pp $-151	+1.0pp $-208

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,750
• Closing costs: $6,450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
348 Gordon Ave Waverly, FL	2.0	1.0	936	$1,500	$1.60	24d	1	0.17mi
3005 Willow Glen CIR Lake Wales, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	980	$1,720	$1.75	4d	35	1.11mi
243 C F Kinney Rd Lake Wales, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	22d	1	1.21mi

Listing history 10 events

1. 2026-04-19
   price $215,000
2. 2026-02-24
   status Active
3. 2026-01-09
   status Pending
4. 2026-01-05
   listed $219,000 Active
5. 2025-11-14
   historical
6. 2025-10-28
   price $229,500
7. 2025-10-08
   price $235,000
8. 2025-06-14
   price $244,000
9. 2025-05-14
   listed $250,000 Active
10. 2001-02-08
    soldstatus $45,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,469 · $206/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,469 · $206/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 10/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,159
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,043
• − Property taxes: −$2,469
• − Insurance: −$1,075
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,613
• − Management: −$1,613
• − Depreciation: −$6,255
• Taxable loss: −$4,908
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,178
• After-tax cash flow: $30/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Polk
• NCES district ID: 1201590
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $43,979
• Composite: 34.74/100
• National rank: #5132
• State rank: #62 of 73 in FL

Livability — Waverly

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #817
• US rank: #19901

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Waverly, FL
• City population: 302
• Population (ZIP): 302

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 752,975 people
• By 2030: 804,621 · +6.9%
• By 2040: 906,117 · +20.3%
• By 2050: 1,000,476 · +32.9%
• By 2075: 1,197,520 · +59.0%
• By 2100: 1,271,518 · +68.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (56%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Black 44%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.7) · D 39.2% · R 59.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -20.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.7 2020: R+14.4 2016: R+14.1 2012: R+6.8 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: —
• Current HPI: —
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+368.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-19 Price Changed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-02-24 Relisted — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-09 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-05 Listed $219,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-11-14 Listing Removed — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-28 Price Changed $229,500 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-08 Price Changed $235,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-14 Price Changed $244,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-14 Listed $250,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-02-08 Sold (Public Records) $45,900 Public Records

Property tax history

+11.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,469 · +10.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.