5 bd · 2.0 ba ·
2,016 sqft ·
Built 1880
· MultiFamily
· Active
· 181 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,969/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$787
Tax + insurance
−$108
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$623
Net cashflow
$1,451/mo
Annual
$17,413/yr
Cap rate
17.90%
Cash-on-cash
41.46%
DSCR
2.84
1% rule
1.98%
Cash to close
$42,000
Investor read
This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath multifamily listed at $150k. Condition is rated fair.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $1k ($17k/yr) — positive.
The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $150k).
It's been on market 181 days — a 12% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $132k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
In year one you build about $12k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $11k appreciation (7.5% local appreciation)).
Location reads 77/100 on livability (#195 in NY, #3,011 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: commute A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
Buffalo City School District (urban): math 41% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #535 of 590 in NY (top 91%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 75% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
Zoned schools: International School (math 8% / reading 17%, grade F, #2,048 of 2,108 statewide, top 97%, 981 students, 92% FRL); Hutchinson Central Technical High School (math 96% / reading 32%, grade B-, #807 of 1,100 statewide, top 73%, 1,175 students, 78% FRL).
Watch-outs: built in 1880 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.5%/yr); 247 active listings in the ZIP; 1,244 units permitted in Erie County in 2024 (563 in 5+ unit buildings).
2 sale attempts since 4y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
At projected returns (7.5% appreciation + 0.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$31k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Cap rate 17.9% vs local median 6.9% in Buffalo — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
At $2,969/mo this rent would consume 66% of the median local household income ($54k/yr) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.
Questions for listing agent
It's been on market 181 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
Built in 1880 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)
Major: roof
— The satellite image shows a worn roof
Major: exterior siding
— Weathered siding
Major: landscaping
— Unkempt landscaping
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