3955 Bush Ct

Abingdon, MD 21009

$280,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Built 1997 · Townhouse · Pending · 39 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,283/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax + insurance: −$302
• HOA: −$98
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-64/mo
• Annual: $-771/yr
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $78,400

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-771/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.5% below list).
• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgewood Middle (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 999 students, 72% FRL); Edgewood High (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,415 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 24% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $280k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Abingdon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.