3955 Bush Ct · Abingdon, MD 21009

$280,000

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,510 sqft · Townhouse public records · 39 Days on market

Built 1997 2,000 sqft lot $185/sqft · at area comps Est $292k · at est. $98/mo HOA · 4% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +9.3/15.0
• Rent growth +4.3/5.0
• DSCR +3.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Gorgeous brickfront 3 BR 2.5 Bath townhome on quiet cul de sac backing to woods. Home has over 1100 sq. ft on main two levels. Large eat-in kitchen with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with cathedral ceiling & walk in closet. Spacious, finished walk out lower level. Great deck & fenced in backyard with 10x8 shed. Community park with playground across the street. 10++

Key facts

• $98 HOA
• 2 parking spots
• Community pool

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: HOA fee $98 monthly; HOA includes snow removal and trash; Community pool (outdoor)

Exterior

• Parking: Two assigned parking spaces; On-street parking available; Parking lot
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Natural gas available; Hot water: electric
• Home design: Semi-detached property; Brick construction with brick front; Good condition; Fee simple ownership
• Construction: Concrete perimeter foundation; Above- and below-grade structures; Estimated year built
• Exterior features: Fully fenced; Community outdoor pool; Below-grade finished area

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Disposal; Electric range/oven; Refrigerator; Stainless steel appliances
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms on the upper level
• Flooring: Hardwood; Tile/brick; Vinyl; Carpet
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fans
• Interior features: Tub/shower; Ceiling fans; Eat-in kitchen; Pantry; Walk-in closet(s); Drywall walls and ceilings; Wood floors; Carpeted areas
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $280k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-64 ($-771/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (4.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $228k (18.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (18.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.4% in Abingdon — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Harford County Public Schools (suburban): math 22% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #9 of 24 in MD (top 38%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Edgewood Middle (math 7% / reading 31%, grade F, #155 of 225 statewide, top 70%, 999 students, 72% FRL); Edgewood High (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #111 of 222 statewide, top 50%, 1,415 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools average 67% FRL vs 24% district-wide (43 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+7.1%/yr); 159 active listings in the ZIP; 11 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 55% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 803 units permitted in Harford County in 2024 (26 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 39 days — a 3% lower offer ($272k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $19k (6%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $175k; list at $280k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→15/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $228,335 (18.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 39 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.02%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.98%
• DSCR: 0.96
• GRM: 10.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $291,603
• List price: $280,000
• Delta: -3.98%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 6 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1124 Splashing Brook Dr	0.47mi	3/3.0	1,456 (-4%)	1mo	$290,500	$200	69
1232 Splashing Brook Dr	0.31mi	3/2.5	1,407 (-7%)	10mo	$317,000	$225	66
1152 Splashing Brook Dr	0.42mi	3/3.5	1,596 (+6%)	9mo	$275,000	$172	60
1123 Splashing Brook Dr	0.47mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,488 (-2%)	11mo	$290,000	$195	59
3903 Bush Ct	0.10mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,374 (-9%)	20mo	$302,500	$220	55
3830 Copper Beech Dr	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,730 (+15%)	10mo	$330,000	$191	50

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 7.12% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-39,615
• Equity at exit: $41,749

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.05×
• Total profit: $4,247
• Equity at exit: $24,209

Cash invested: $78,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 27 Tenant-Leaning
• State Maryland: 27 Tenant-Leaning · D+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Failure-to-pay is dismissed if cured before judgment; Baltimore has just-cause; strict deposit rules.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 21009

• Rents YoY: 7.1%
• Active inventory: 159
• Price-to-rent: 10.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,283 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,468
• Tax from tax record: −$185 /mo · $2,221/yr
• Insurance: −$117
• HOA: −$98
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$480
• Net cashflow: $-64

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,365

Max offer price $268,646

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $94	-5% $15	+0% $-64	+5% $-144	+10% $-223
Rent	-10% $-245	-5% $-154	+0% $-64	+5% $26	+10% $116
Rate	-1.0pp $77	-0.5pp $7	base $-64	+0.5pp $-137	+1.0pp $-211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,000
• Closing costs: $8,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 11 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1427 Sedum Sq Belcamp, MD	4.0	2.5	2010	$2,500	$1.24	5d	1	0.87mi
1414 Primrose Pl Belcamp, MD	2.0	1.5	1664	$1,750	$1.05	45d	1	0.99mi
1300 Liriope Ct Belcamp, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,249	$2.31	44d	32	1.00mi
1300 Liriope Ct Belcamp, MD	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	974	$2,280	$2.34	4d	19	1.00mi
4307 Greys Run Cir Belcamp, MD	3.0	1.5	1605	$2,600	$1.62	44d	1	1.07mi
1402 Golden Rod Ct #5 Belcamp, MD	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,650	$1.50	44d	1	1.08mi
1303 Sandwort Ct #102 Belcamp, MD	3.0	2.0	1232	$2,200	$1.79	18d	1	1.08mi
1250 Independence Sq Belcamp, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,950	$1.69	44d	1	1.22mi
4203 Chapel Gate Pl Belcamp, MD	3.0	2.5	1236	$2,419	$1.96	5d	1	1.32mi
1335 Stockett Sq Belcamp, MD	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,950	$1.69	44d	1	1.35mi
2786 Megan Way Bel Air, MD	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1092	$2,490	$2.28	3d	31	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $98 · $1,176/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $280,000 Pending 39 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $280,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $280,000 Active 38 DOM
4. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $280,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $292,500 Active 32 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $292,500 Active 31 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $292,500 Active 30 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $292,500 Active 27 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $292,500 Active 26 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $292,500 Active 25 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $299,000 Active 24 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $299,000 Active 23 DOM
13. 2026-05-09
    listed $299,000 Active 2003-char remark
14. 2026-05-07
    historical $299,000 2003-char remark
15. 2019-12-31
    soldstatus $175,000
16. 2019-12-13
    soldstatus $175,000 Closed 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Gorgeous brickfront 3 BR 2.5 Bath townhome on quiet cul de sac backing to woods. Home has over 1100 sq. ft on main two levels. Large eat-in kitchen with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with cathedral ceiling & walk in closet. Spacious, finished walk out lower level. Great deck & fenced in backyard with 10x8 shed. Community park with playground across the street. 10++

17. 2019-10-30
    status Pending 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Gorgeous brickfront 3 BR 2.5 Bath townhome on quiet cul de sac backing to woods. Home has over 1100 sq. ft on main two levels. Large eat-in kitchen with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with cathedral ceiling & walk in closet. Spacious, finished walk out lower level. Great deck & fenced in backyard with 10x8 shed. Community park with playground across the street. 10++

18. 2019-10-26
    price $175,000 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Gorgeous brickfront 3 BR 2.5 Bath townhome on quiet cul de sac backing to woods. Home has over 1100 sq. ft on main two levels. Large eat-in kitchen with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with cathedral ceiling & walk in closet. Spacious, finished walk out lower level. Great deck & fenced in backyard with 10x8 shed. Community park with playground across the street. 10++

19. 2019-10-17
    listed $179,900 Active 381-char remark

    Show marketing remark (381 chars)

    Gorgeous brickfront 3 BR 2.5 Bath townhome on quiet cul de sac backing to woods. Home has over 1100 sq. ft on main two levels. Large eat-in kitchen with hardwood floors. Master bedroom with cathedral ceiling & walk in closet. Spacious, finished walk out lower level. Great deck & fenced in backyard with 10x8 shed. Community park with playground across the street. 10++

20. 1997-11-20
    soldstatus $92,160
21. 1997-06-30
    soldstatus $212,160

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MD · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,221 · $185/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,637 · $220/mo
• Expected delta: +$415/yr (+$35/mo · 18.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $27,400
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,684
• − Property taxes: −$2,221
• − Insurance: −$1,400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,192
• − Management: −$2,192
• − HOA: −$1,176
• − Depreciation: −$8,145
• Taxable loss: −$5,611
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,347
• After-tax cash flow: $575/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Harford County Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2400390
• Math proficiency: 22% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $79,569
• Composite: 29.38/100
• National rank: #6527
• State rank: #9 of 24 in MD

Livability — Abingdon

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Abingdon, MD
• County: Harford County · 198,512 people
• City population: 33,679
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• Population (ZIP): 33,679
• Household income: $121,660
• Rent vs Own: 17.6% rent · 82.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 437.0

Population outlook (Harford County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 262,292 people
• By 2030: 266,437 · +1.6%
• By 2040: 269,954 · +2.9%
• By 2050: 265,659 · +1.3%
• By 2075: 252,886 · -3.6%
• By 2100: 224,014 · -14.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Black 18% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 4% Two or more races 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 5% Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, South Korea, China
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Indo-European 2% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harford

• 2024 margin: R (+13.8) · D 41.9% · R 55.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: +5.0pp toward D · 2008: -18.8pp · 2024: -13.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.8 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+24.5 2012: R+19.5 2008: R+18.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -176.25%
• Current HPI: 251.4376
• Rent YoY: ▲ 7.12%
• Metro: Baltimore-Columbia-Towson, MD
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.97%
• F500 in state: 12

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MD)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	1	$71B
▸Utilities	1	$25B
▸Hotels	1	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$7B
▸Real Estate	1	$6B
▸Chemicals	1	$2B

Price history

+32.0% since first listed

12 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $280,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-06-03 Price Changed $292,500 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-09 Listed $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2026-05-07 Coming Soon $299,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2019-12-13 Sold (MLS) $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-30 Pending — BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-26 Price Changed $175,000 BRIGHT MLS
• 2019-10-17 Listed $179,900 BRIGHT MLS
• 1997-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $92,160 Public Records
• 1997-06-30 Sold (Public Records) $212,160 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,221 · +7.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.