427 Medlin Pike

Dayton, TN 37332

$180,000C-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Built 1965 · Manufactured · Active · 370 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,359/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax + insurance: −$114
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $15/mo
• Annual: $182/yr
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• 1% rule: 0.75%
• Cash to close: $50,400

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($182/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (24.5% below list).
• It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $136k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#143 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rhea County (rural): math 35% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #38 of 139 in TN (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 198 units permitted in Rhea County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $180k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.