427 Medlin Pike · Dayton, TN 37332

$180,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 960 sqft · Manufactured public records · 370 Days on market

Built 1965 0.42 ac lot $188/sqft · 24% above area Est $229k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.8/30.0
• Appreciation +7.1/10.0
• DSCR +4.2/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

Key facts

• 0.42 acre lot
• Built 1965
• Listed 370 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $180k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $15 ($182/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $136k (24.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $136k (24.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 2.5% in Dayton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#143 in TN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, crime B; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Rhea County (rural): math 35% / reading 31% proficiency, ranked #38 of 139 in TN (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 68 active listings in the ZIP; 198 units permitted in Rhea County in 2024 (40 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $9k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (4.3% local appreciation)).
• At projected returns (4.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $50k cash investment doubles in ~5 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$30k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 370 days — a 12% lower offer ($158k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (22%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $30k; list at $180k implies a 500% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $135,861 (24.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 370 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 25% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1965 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.39%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.36%
• DSCR: 1.02
• GRM: 11.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $228,895
• List price: $180,000
• Delta: -21.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 19 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

4.26% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 11.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.69×
• Total profit: $34,819
• Equity at exit: $93,980

10-year hold

• IRR: 12.7%
• Equity multiple: 3.15×
• Total profit: $108,164
• Equity at exit: $155,921

Cash invested: $50,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 37332

• Home prices YoY: 1.1%
• Active inventory: 68
• Price-to-rent: 11.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,359 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$944
• Tax from tax record: −$39 /mo · $470/yr
• Insurance: −$75
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$285
• Net cashflow: $15

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,339

Max offer price $180,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $117	-5% $66	+0% $15	+5% $-36	+10% $-87
Rent	-10% $-92	-5% $-38	+0% $15	+5% $69	+10% $123
Rate	-1.0pp $106	-0.5pp $61	base $15	+0.5pp $-31	+1.0pp $-79

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $45,000
• Closing costs: $5,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 37 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $180,000 Active 370 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $180,000 Active 368 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $180,000 Active 367 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $180,000 Active 366 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $180,000 Active 365 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $180,000 Active 363 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $180,000 Active 362 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $180,000 Active 359 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $180,000 Active 358 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $180,000 Active 357 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $180,000 Active 356 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $180,000 Active 353 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $180,000 Active 352 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $180,000 Active 351 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $180,000 Active 350 DOM
16. 2025-08-18
    price $180,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

17. 2025-08-18
    price $180,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

18. 2025-08-18
    price $180,000

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

19. 2025-08-18
    price $180,000

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

20. 2025-08-04
    price $200,000

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

21. 2025-08-04
    price $200,000

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

22. 2025-08-04
    price $200,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

23. 2025-08-04
    price $200,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

24. 2025-07-23
    price $225,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

25. 2025-07-23
    price $225,000

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

26. 2025-07-23
    price $225,000 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

27. 2025-07-23
    price $225,000

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

28. 2025-06-15
    listed $230,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

29. 2025-06-15
    listed $230,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

30. 2025-06-15
    listed $230,000 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

31. 2025-06-14
    listed $230,000 Active 254-char remark

    Show marketing remark (254 chars)

    Grab this starter investment with home and business on one lot! The first building has solid potential for business use. The second is a cozy 3-bedroom manufactured home, perfect for living or renting out. A smart way to combine work and home in one spot

32. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus $30,000
33. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus $30,000
34. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus $30,000
35. 2020-12-23
    soldstatus $30,000
36. 2020-12-07
    listed $37,900
37. 2003-10-15
    soldstatus $40,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TN · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $470 · $39/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,278 · $106/mo
• Expected delta: +$808/yr (+$67/mo · 171.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,303
• − Mortgage interest: −$10,083
• − Property taxes: −$470
• − Insurance: −$900
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,304
• − Management: −$1,304
• − Depreciation: −$5,236
• Taxable loss: −$2,994
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$719
• After-tax cash flow: $901/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rhea County
• NCES district ID: 4703510
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 31% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $39,059
• Composite: 27.67/100
• National rank: #6917
• State rank: #38 of 139 in TN

Livability — Dayton

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #143
• US rank: #12896

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment F Housing C+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 20,670
• Population (ZIP): 2,123

Population outlook (Rhea County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 33,187 people
• By 2030: 33,482 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 33,786 · +1.8%
• By 2050: 33,730 · +1.6%
• By 2075: 33,603 · +1.3%
• By 2100: 33,312 · +0.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 7% Slovak 4% Scottish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Rhea

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+66.9) · D 16.0% · R 82.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.7pp toward R · 2008: -46.2pp · 2024: -66.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+66.9 2020: R+63.7 2016: R+61.3 2012: R+48.9 2008: R+46.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 4.26%
• Current HPI: 398.9351
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

+350.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $180,000 RCAOR
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $180,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $180,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-18 Price Changed $180,000 GCAR
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $200,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $200,000 GCAR
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $200,000 RCAOR
• 2025-08-04 Price Changed $200,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $225,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $225,000 GCAR
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $225,000 RCAOR
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $225,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-15 Listed $230,000 GCAR
• 2025-06-15 Listed $230,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-15 Listed $230,000 RCAOR
• 2025-06-14 Listed $230,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-12-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 RCAOR
• 2020-12-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 REALTRACS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2020-12-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2020-12-23 Sold (MLS) $30,000 GCAR
• 2020-12-07 Listed $37,900 RCAOR
• 2003-10-15 Sold (Public Records) $40,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $470 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.