671 Willow Ln

Basye, VA 22842

$369,000D

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,596 sqft · Built 2005 · SingleFamily · Active · 15 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,146/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,935
• Tax + insurance: −$283
• HOA: −$64
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$451
• Net cashflow: $-587/mo
• Annual: $-7,042/yr
• Cap rate: 4.38%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.82%
• DSCR: 0.70
• 1% rule: 0.58%
• Cash to close: $103,320

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $369k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-587 ($-7k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $265k (28.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $215k (41.8% below list).
• It's been on market 15 days — a 2% lower offer ($363k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $215k (41.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $39k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $37k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#319 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Shenandoah County Public School District (town): math 46% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #91 of 131 in VA (top 70%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Honey Run Elementary (math 57% / reading 60%, grade B-, #576 of 1,108 statewide, top 52%, 564 students, 75% FRL); North Fork Middle (math 42% / reading 52%, grade D+, #257 of 342 statewide, top 77%, 350 students, 73% FRL); Mountain View High (math 54% / reading 65%, grade C+, #247 of 319 statewide, top 80%, 628 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 74% FRL vs 37% district-wide (37 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 52 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 224 units permitted in Shenandoah County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Shenandoah County population projected at +5% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 18350% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Current owner paid $230k; list at $369k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$63k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 4.4% vs local median 2.2% in Basye — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.