625 Belle Hollow Rd

Adwolf, VA 24319

$149,000D+

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · Built 1987 · SingleFamily · Active · 80 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,066/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax + insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-36/mo
• Annual: $-431/yr
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• 1% rule: 0.72%
• Cash to close: $41,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-431/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (28.5% below list).
• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#349 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.