625 Belle Hollow Rd · Adwolf, VA 24319

$149,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 950 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 80 Days on market

Built 1987 1.00 ac lot $157/sqft · at area comps Est $149k · at est.

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

BACK ON THE MARKET AT NO FAULT OF THE SELLER. Escape to your own private hideaway with this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath cottage set on 1 acre in the countryside of Chilhowie, VA. Surrounded by nature and set back for privacy, this home offers a comforting sense of calm from the moment you arrive. Inside, you'll find warm, inviting living spaces filled with natural light and character—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the quiet pace of rural living. Every room feels thoughtfully designed, creating a welcoming environment that instantly feels like home. Outside, the land provides plenty of room to garden, explore, or unwind in your own private retreat. A standout feature is the two-story outbuilding located out back, offering excellent potential for storage, hobbies, or a future creative workspace. If you're searching for peace, seclusion, and the timeless charm of country living, this Chilhowie cottage delivers it beautifully.

Key facts

• Private hideaway
• Room to garden
• 1 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE HIDEAWAY
• TWO STORY OUTBUILDING
• ROOM TO GARDEN
• COUNTRYSIDE OF CHILHOWIE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $149k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-36 ($-431/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $143k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (28.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (28.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#349 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Smyth County Public School District (rural): math 46% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #89 of 131 in VA (top 68%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: 75 active listings in the ZIP; 38 units permitted in Smyth County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $16k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $15k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Smyth County population projected at -20% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $42k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$40k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($140k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $129k; 16% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,565 (28.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 28% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.72% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.03%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 11.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $149,110
• List price: $149,000
• Delta: -0.07%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 8 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 23.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.89×
• Total profit: $78,785
• Equity at exit: $134,231

10-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.60×
• Total profit: $233,653
• Equity at exit: $289,474

Cash invested: $41,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 24319

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Active inventory: 75
• Price-to-rent: 11.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$781
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $412/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-36

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,111

Max offer price $142,656

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,250
• Closing costs: $4,470
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $149,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $149,000 Active 79 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $149,000 Active 78 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 77 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $149,000 Active 76 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $149,000 Active 75 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $149,000 Active 74 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $149,000 Active 71 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $149,000 Active 70 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $149,000 Active 69 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $149,000 Active 68 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $149,000 Active 65 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $149,000 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $149,000 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $149,000 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-04-10
    price $154,900 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET AT NO FAULT OF THE SELLER. Escape to your own private hideaway with this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath cottage set on 1 acre in the countryside of Chilhowie, VA. Surrounded by nature and set back for privacy, this home offers a comforting sense of calm from the moment you arrive. Inside, you'll find warm, inviting living spaces filled with natural light and character—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the quiet pace of rural living. Every room feels thoughtfully designed, creating a welcoming environment that instantly feels like home. Outside, the land provides plenty of room to garden, explore, or unwind in your own private retreat. A standout feature is the two-story outbuilding located out back, offering excellent potential for storage, hobbies, or a future creative workspace. If you're searching for peace, seclusion, and the timeless charm of country living, this Chilhowie cottage delivers it beautifully.

17. 2026-03-30
    listed $155,000 Active 965-char remark

    Show marketing remark (965 chars)

    BACK ON THE MARKET AT NO FAULT OF THE SELLER. Escape to your own private hideaway with this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath cottage set on 1 acre in the countryside of Chilhowie, VA. Surrounded by nature and set back for privacy, this home offers a comforting sense of calm from the moment you arrive. Inside, you'll find warm, inviting living spaces filled with natural light and character—perfect for relaxing, entertaining, or simply enjoying the quiet pace of rural living. Every room feels thoughtfully designed, creating a welcoming environment that instantly feels like home. Outside, the land provides plenty of room to garden, explore, or unwind in your own private retreat. A standout feature is the two-story outbuilding located out back, offering excellent potential for storage, hobbies, or a future creative workspace. If you're searching for peace, seclusion, and the timeless charm of country living, this Chilhowie cottage delivers it beautifully.

18. 2026-01-15
    price $155,000
19. 2024-05-09
    soldstatus $129,000 Closed
20. 2024-05-09
    soldstatus $129,000
21. 2024-04-10
    historical Active Under Contract
22. 2024-04-08
    listed $129,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $412 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,222 · $102/mo
• Expected delta: +$810/yr (+$67/mo · 196.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 8 d/yr ≥91°F today · 23 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,788
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,346
• − Property taxes: −$412
• − Insurance: −$745
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$4,335
• Taxable loss: −$3,096
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$743
• After-tax cash flow: $312/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Smyth County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103520
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -38.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -14.00%
• Median HH income: $36,901
• Composite: 45.2/100
• National rank: #2672
• State rank: #89 of 131 in VA

Livability — Adwolf

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #349
• US rank: #13855

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 6,963

Population outlook (Smyth County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 29,740 people
• By 2030: 28,593 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 26,091 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 23,629 · -20.5%
• By 2075: 18,365 · -38.2%
• By 2100: 13,697 · -53.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Black 2% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Serbian 2% Slovak 2% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 2% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Smyth

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.4% · R 79.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.4pp toward R · 2008: -29.1pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.3 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+33.0 2008: R+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 16.03%
• Current HPI: 257.8732
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+20.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Price Changed $154,900 SWVAR
• 2026-03-30 Listed $155,000 SWVAR
• 2026-01-15 Price Changed $155,000 SWVAR
• 2024-05-09 Sold (Public Records) $129,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-09 Sold (MLS) $129,000 SWVAR
• 2024-04-10 Contingent — SWVAR
• 2024-04-08 Listed $129,000 SWVAR

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $412 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.