2976 Pottershop Rd #2970

Bardstown, KY 40004

$99,900B+

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · Built 1998 · SingleFamily · Pending · 2 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,456/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$131
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $496/mo
• Annual: $5,948/yr
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.26%
• DSCR: 1.95
• 1% rule: 1.46%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#145 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nelson County (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #97 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Foster Heights Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 674 students, 44% FRL); Old Kentucky Home Middle School (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #184 of 217 statewide, top 87%, 368 students, 40% FRL); Nelson County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 784 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Nelson County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $100k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.1% in Bardstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.