2976 Pottershop Rd #2970 · Bardstown, KY 40004

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,280 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1998 5.60 ac lot Est $175k · 43% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +9.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful 5.6 acre tract with two mobile homes that need work.

Key facts

• 5.6 acre lot
• Parking
• Built 1998

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association fee

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Electricity connected
• Home design: Single-story residential home; Built in 1998; Entry level: first floor
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof; Built in 1998
• Exterior features: Wooded lot; Waterfront on the property

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on the first floor
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms, all on the first floor
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating with a heat pump; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: First-floor primary bedroom; Living room on the first floor; First-floor laundry; No basement; Total of 5 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located on the first floor

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $496 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.1% in Bardstown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#145 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Nelson County (rural): math 23% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #97 of 165 in KY (top 59%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Foster Heights Elementary School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #572 of 676 statewide, top 88%, 674 students, 44% FRL); Old Kentucky Home Middle School (math 14% / reading 36%, grade F, #184 of 217 statewide, top 87%, 368 students, 40% FRL); Nelson County High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 784 students, 42% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 246 active listings in the ZIP; 210 units permitted in Nelson County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Nelson County population projected at +8% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $58k; list at $100k implies a 72% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $99,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.46% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.25%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.26%
• DSCR: 1.95
• GRM: 5.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $175,360
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
670 Greer Ln	0.42mi	3/1.0	1,164 (-9%)	20mo	$160,000	$137	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $15,379
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.93×
• Total profit: $54,040
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40004

• Home prices YoY: -16.0%
• Active inventory: 246
• Price-to-rent: 5.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,456 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$89 /mo · $1,068/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$306
• Net cashflow: $496

Break-even live

Break-even rent $829

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 61%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $552	-5% $524	+0% $496	+5% $467	+10% $439
Rent	-10% $381	-5% $438	+0% $496	+5% $553	+10% $611
Rate	-1.0pp $546	-0.5pp $521	base $496	+0.5pp $470	+1.0pp $443

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-22
   listed $99,900 Active
2. 2005-12-01
   soldstatus $58,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,068 · $89/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,471
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$1,068
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,398
• − Management: −$1,398
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable income: $4,606
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,105
• After-tax cash flow: $4,842/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Nelson County
• NCES district ID: 2104410
• Math proficiency: 23% ▼ -17.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Median HH income: $54,290
• Composite: 26.15/100
• National rank: #7274
• State rank: #97 of 165 in KY

Livability — Bardstown

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #145
• US rank: #6811

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Nelson County · 30,601 people
• City population: 30,601
• Metro: Bardstown, KY
• Population (ZIP): 30,601
• Household income: $66,578
• Rent vs Own: 26.7% rent · 73.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 795.0

Population outlook (Nelson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 48,436 people
• By 2030: 49,780 · +2.8%
• By 2040: 51,737 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 52,395 · +8.2%
• By 2075: 52,271 · +7.9%
• By 2100: 47,277 · -2.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (87%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 87% Black 7% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Italian 1% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, United Kingdom
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Nelson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+41.8) · D 28.5% · R 70.3% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -28.1pp toward R · 2008: -13.7pp · 2024: -41.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+41.8 2020: R+36.6 2016: R+33.7 2012: R+16.5 2008: R+13.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -52.14%
• Current HPI: 272.9009
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Bardstown, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

+72.2% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $99,900 Metro Search MLS
• 2005-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $58,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+8.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,068 · +229.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.