7964 Edgewood Forest Dr

Orlando, FL 32827

$344,997D

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Built 2015 · Townhouse · Pending · 13 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,890/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$385
• HOA: −$518
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-429/mo
• Annual: $-5,151/yr
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• 1% rule: 0.84%
• Cash to close: $96,599

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (16.2% below list).
• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Recommended offer: $269k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-715 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northlake Park Community Elementary (math 77% / reading 76%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 663 students, 26% FRL); Lake Nona Middle (math 72% / reading 64%, grade A-, #74 of 571 statewide, top 13%, 1,715 students, 31% FRL); Lake Nona High (math 45% / reading 64%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 4,362 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 56% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orange average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 423 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $345k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.