7964 Edgewood Forest Dr · Orlando, FL 32827

$344,997

3 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,394 sqft · Townhouse public records · 13 Days on market

Built 2015 2,347 sqft lot Est $365k · 6% under $518/mo HOA · 18% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +10.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.5/30.0
• Appreciation +4.9/10.0
• Livability +4.3/5.0
• Schools +4.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• DSCR +1.6/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

New Townhome, all bedrooms upstairs. Community boat dock and ramp at Lake Nona, Clubhouse, Tot Lots, Gated Entry with Attendant, Community Pool, Dog Park, Basketball & Tennis Courts, Walking Trails, Family Membership to YMCA.

Key facts

• Quartz countertops
• Open concept kitchen
• Fenced yard

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT KITCHEN
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• QUARTZ COUNTERTOPS
• WALK IN CLOSETS
• FENCED YARD
• BOAT RAMP ACCESS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Association approval not required
• Financial info: Total monthly fees reported as $518; Total annual fees reported as $6,216; No lease restrictions reported
• HOA & community: Has HOA; monthly HOA approximately $371.67; Quarterly association fees (examples listed: $1,115 and $439); HOA covers 24-hour guard, pool, structure maintenance, and grounds maintenance; Community amenities include deed restrictions, dog park, park, playground, pool, and sidewalks; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: 1-car garage
• Security: 24-hour guard (community amenity)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Public utilities
• Home design: Residential townhouse; Two stories; Faces north; Homestead property
• Construction: Block and stucco construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built as part of a multi-building development
• Exterior features: Sidewalk

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Ceramic tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Inside laundry in a laundry closet

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/3.0-bath townhouse listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-429 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (22.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $289k (16.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $269k (22.0% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.8% vs local median 3.0% in Orlando — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 86/100 on livability (#12 in FL, #360 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Orange (suburban): math 46% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #43 of 73 in FL (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Northlake Park Community Elementary (math 77% / reading 76%, grade A, #185 of 2,144 statewide, top 9%, 663 students, 26% FRL); Lake Nona Middle (math 72% / reading 64%, grade A-, #74 of 571 statewide, top 13%, 1,715 students, 31% FRL); Lake Nona High (math 45% / reading 64%, grade C-, #138 of 667 statewide, top 21%, 4,362 students, 34% FRL) — zoned schools average 30% FRL vs 56% district-wide (26 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 66% at this address vs 48% district-wide (+18 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Orange average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 423 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 26d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 8,053 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (3,133 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $-715 appreciation (-0.2% local appreciation)).
• Orange County population projected at +52% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $215k; list at $345k implies a 60% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $269,260 (22.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.80%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.33%
• DSCR: 0.76
• GRM: 9.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $365,228
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
10255 Hartford Maroon Rd	0.12mi	3/2.5	1,318 (-6%)	12mo	$345,000	$262	74

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.21% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-48,969
• Equity at exit: $96,617

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.30×
• Total profit: $-68,024
• Equity at exit: $113,335

Cash invested: $96,599 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32827

• Home prices YoY: -0.1%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 423
• Price-to-rent: 9.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,890 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$241 /mo · $2,893/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$518
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$607
• Net cashflow: $-429

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,433

Max offer price $269,260

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-233	-5% $-331	+0% $-429	+5% $-526	+10% $-624
Rent	-10% $-657	-5% $-543	+0% $-429	+5% $-315	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-255	-0.5pp $-341	base $-429	+0.5pp $-518	+1.0pp $-609

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,249
• Closing costs: $10,350
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7975 Northlake Pkwy Orlando, FL	4.0	2.5	1648	$2,750	$1.67	23d	1	0.06mi
10133 Randolphs Orchard Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1809	$3,200	$1.77	25d	1	0.13mi
9101 Camden Gardens St Orlando, FL	4.0	3.0	1504	$2,350	$1.56	9d	1	1.11mi
9319 Strongbark Ln Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1508	$2,300	$1.53	25d	1	1.42mi
9576 Silver Buttonwood St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.0	1863	$2,161	$1.16	23d	1	1.44mi
9571 Silver Buttonwood St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,500	$1.55	25d	1	1.47mi
9571 Silver Buttonwood St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1608	$2,500	$1.55	5d	1	1.47mi
9464 Tawnyberry St Orlando, FL	3.0	2.5	1738	$2,200	$1.27	25d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $518 · $6,216/yr
• Likely covers: poolsecurity

Listing history 11 events

1. 2026-06-13
   statusdays on market $344,997 Pending 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $344,997 Active 10 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $344,997 Active 9 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $344,997 Active 8 DOM
5. 2026-06-04
   days on market $344,997 Active 5 DOM
6. 2026-06-03
   days on market $344,997 Active 4 DOM
7. 2026-06-02
   days on market $344,997 Active 3 DOM
8. 2026-06-02
   remarks 681-char remark
9. 2026-06-01
   days on market $344,997 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-05-31
    remarks 675-char remark
11. 2026-05-31
    listed $344,997 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,893 · $241/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,893 · $241/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,683
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,325
• − Property taxes: −$2,893
• − Insurance: −$1,725
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,775
• − Management: −$2,775
• − HOA: −$6,216
• − Depreciation: −$10,036
• Taxable loss: −$11,062
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,655
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,490/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Orange
• NCES district ID: 1201440
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $49,350
• Composite: 41.47/100
• National rank: #3461
• State rank: #43 of 73 in FL

Livability — Orlando

• Score: 86/100
• State rank: #12
• US rank: #360

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orlando, FL
• County: Orange County · 1,471,359 people
• City population: 964,969
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 19,711
• Household income: $117,483
• Rent vs Own: 38.7% rent · 61.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 956.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,618,226 people
• By 2030: 1,787,404 · +10.5%
• By 2040: 2,125,621 · +31.4%
• By 2050: 2,454,016 · +51.6%
• By 2075: 3,173,711 · +96.1%
• By 2100: 3,607,781 · +122.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 42% Hispanic / Latino 35% Two or more races 19% Black 10% Asian 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 16% Cuban 4% Dominican 5%
• Common ancestry: Estonian 4% Lithuanian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 55% English-only · Spanish 27% Other Indo-European 10% Arabic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: D (+13.6) · D 56.1% · R 42.5% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.0pp toward R · 2008: 18.6pp · 2024: 13.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.6 2020: D+23.1 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+18.2 2008: D+18.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.21%
• Current HPI: 265.2611
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.56%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-92.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-30 Price Changed $344,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-05-30 Listed $349,997 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-28 Listed $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-01-28 Sold (MLS) $215,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2009-12-31 Sold (Public Records) $4,477,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+18.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,893 · +4.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.