1036 Big Foot Wallace Trl

Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77351

$118,000B-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Built 2002 · Land · Active · 35 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,520/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax + insurance: −$197
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $385/mo
• Annual: $4,621/yr
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.99%
• DSCR: 1.62
• 1% rule: 1.29%
• Cash to close: $33,040

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $118k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $114k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Sandy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #452 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.