1036 Big Foot Wallace Trl · Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX 77351

$118,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,848 sqft · Land · 35 Days on market

Built 2002 0.51 ac lot $64/sqft · 6% below area Est $126k · 6% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +28.5/30.0
• ARV discount +10.2/15.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• 1% rule +7.9/10.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great place to call home. Check out this 3 bedroom 2 bath home in Livingston. Schedule your appt today!

Key facts

• 0.51 acre lot
• Built 2002
• Listed 35 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Annual tax information available
• Financial info: Lease not considered

Exterior

• Utilities: Lot size about 0.512 acres
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2002
• Construction: Composition roof; Approximately 1,848 building area
• Exterior features: Lot includes 'Other' lot features

Interior

• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on the first floor; Additional bedrooms on the first floor
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Interior features: 3 total rooms

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $118k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $385 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $118k).
• Recommended offer: $114k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 10.2% vs local median 4.0% in Big Thicket Lake Estates — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 48/100 on livability (#1,532 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Big Sandy ISD (rural): math 39% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #452 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 1186 active listings in the ZIP; 769 units permitted in Polk County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $816 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Polk County population projected at +16% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $33k cash investment doubles in ~9 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 35 days — a 3% lower offer ($114k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $114,460 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 35 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.29% ✓
• Cap rate: 10.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 13.99%
• DSCR: 1.62
• GRM: 6.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $125,644
• List price: $118,000
• Delta: -6.08%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 2 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 4.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.16×
• Total profit: $5,430
• Equity at exit: $17,594

10-year hold

• IRR: 13.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.10×
• Total profit: $36,406
• Equity at exit: $10,202

Cash invested: $33,040 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77351

• Home prices YoY: -14.8%
• Active inventory: 1186
• Price-to-rent: 6.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,520 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$619
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$148 /mo · $1,770/yr
• Insurance: −$49
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$319
• Net cashflow: $385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,032

Max offer price $118,000

Occupancy floor 70%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $29,500
• Closing costs: $3,540
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $118,000 Active 35 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $118,000 Active 34 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $118,000 Active 33 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $118,000 Active 32 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $118,000 Active 30 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $120,000 Active 26 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $120,000 Active 25 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $120,000 Active 24 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $120,000 Active 21 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $120,000 Active 20 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $120,000 Active 19 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $120,000 Active 18 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $120,000 Active 17 DOM
14. 2026-05-13
    listed $120,000 Active 105-char remark
15. 2026-03-12
    soldstatus
16. 2021-12-29
    soldstatus
17. 2005-12-29
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,237
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,610
• − Property taxes: −$1,770
• − Insurance: −$590
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,459
• − Management: −$1,459
• − Depreciation: −$3,433
• Taxable income: $2,916
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$700
• After-tax cash flow: $3,921/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Sandy ISD
• NCES district ID: 4810170
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $38,145
• Composite: 32.54/100
• National rank: #5696
• State rank: #452 of 826 in TX

Livability — Big Thicket Lake Estates

• Score: 48/100
• State rank: #1532
• US rank: #26123

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Big Thicket Lake Estates, TX
• County: Polk County · 37,143 people
• Metro: nan
• Population (ZIP): 37,143
• Household income: $66,834
• Rent vs Own: 21.5% rent · 78.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 608.0

Population outlook (Polk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 51,049 people
• By 2030: 53,243 · +4.3%
• By 2040: 56,528 · +10.7%
• By 2050: 59,243 · +16.1%
• By 2075: 63,528 · +24.4%
• By 2100: 60,376 · +18.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9% Black 8% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 11%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

Political lean MEDSL · Polk

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+58.9) · D 20.2% · R 79.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.7pp toward R · 2008: -37.2pp · 2024: -58.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+58.9 2020: R+54.5 2016: R+56.5 2012: R+48.2 2008: R+37.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -31.11%
• Current HPI: 178.5316
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: nan
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-1.7% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-10 Price Changed $118,000 HARMLS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $120,000 HARMLS
• 2026-03-12 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2005-12-29 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+13.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $115 · +3.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.