413 White Steppe Way

Georgetown, TX 78626

$249,000D-

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,593 sqft · Built 2021 · Townhouse · Active · 121 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,075/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,306
• Tax + insurance: −$415
• HOA: −$208
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$436
• Net cashflow: $-289/mo
• Annual: $-3,470/yr
• Cap rate: 4.90%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.98%
• DSCR: 0.78
• 1% rule: 0.83%
• Cash to close: $69,720

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $249k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-289 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $207k (16.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $208k (16.6% below list).
• It's been on market 121 days — a 12% lower offer ($219k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $207k (16.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#18 in TX, #1,294 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F.
• Georgetown ISD (suburban): math 31% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #474 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: James E Mitchell El (math 28% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,668 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 724 students, 49% FRL); James Tippit Middle (math 26% / reading 33%, grade F, #1,077 of 1,662 statewide, top 66%, 628 students, 49% FRL); East View H S (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,183 of 1,632 statewide, top 73%, 2,075 students, 41% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.5%/yr); 709 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 53d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 68% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 7,543 units permitted in Williamson County in 2024 (1,425 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Williamson County population projected at +69% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 2.5% in Georgetown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 121 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 17% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.