4149 Arrel Rd

Youngstown, OH 44514

$99,900C-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 463 sqft · Built 1940 · SingleFamily · Active · 84 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $919/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax + insurance: −$98
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $104/mo
• Annual: $1,253/yr
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• 1% rule: 0.92%
• Cash to close: $27,972

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (8.0% below list).
• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $92k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Poland Local (suburban): math 70% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #94 of 656 in OH (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Poland Middle School (math 67% / reading 77%, grade A, #115 of 654 statewide, top 18%, 397 students, 35% FRL); Poland Seminary High School (math 67% / reading 87%, grade A-, #56 of 781 statewide, top 8%, 806 students, 13% FRL).
• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 155 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $100k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.