4149 Arrel Rd · Youngstown, OH 44514

$99,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 463 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 84 Days on market

Built 1940 1.24 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +6.4/10.0
• DSCR +6.0/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Nestled on a sprawling 1.25-acre lot in the community of Poland, OH, this property at 4149 Arrel offers a unique opportunity for homebuyers with vision. Presenting a shell of a single-family residence, this small home awaits your creative touch to transform it into your dream haven. Though currently featuring one bedroom and one bathroom, the expansive land provides ample space for expansion or outdoor amenities. The property includes a detached garage. This diamond in the rough is perfect for those who appreciate the potential and are eager to invest sweat equity into crafting a personalized retreat. Seize the chance to design, build, and finish a home that truly reflects your style and meets your needs. Let 4149 Arrel be the canvas for your masterpiece in homeownership.

Key facts

• Expansive land
• Sprawling lot
• Detached garage

Tags

• SPRAWLING LOT
• DETACHED GARAGE
• EXPANSIVE LAND
• SINGLE FAMILY RESIDENCE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $92k (8.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $92k (8.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#99 in OH, #1,506 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, cost of living A+; Watch: crime F, employment F.
• Poland Local (suburban): math 70% / reading 78% proficiency, ranked #94 of 656 in OH (top 14%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 12% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 147 units permitted in Mahoning County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 14% of the median local income ($80k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mahoning County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 84 days — a 6% lower offer ($94k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 30y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (9%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $100k implies a 203% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $91,883 (8.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 84 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.55%
• Cash-on-cash: 4.48%
• DSCR: 1.20
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -9.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.66×
• Total profit: $-9,566
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.1%
• Equity multiple: 1.00×
• Total profit: $119
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 73 Landlord-Friendly
• State Ohio: 73 Landlord-Friendly · R+6
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; Cleveland / Columbus have some habitability code enforcement; otherwise landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 44514

• Home prices YoY: -23.8%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $919 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$56 /mo · $671/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$193
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $787

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 84%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $161	-5% $133	+0% $104	+5% $76	+10% $48
Rent	-10% $32	-5% $68	+0% $104	+5% $141	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $155	-0.5pp $130	base $104	+0.5pp $79	+1.0pp $52

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-03-30
   price $99,900 782-char remark

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   Nestled on a sprawling 1.25-acre lot in the community of Poland, OH, this property at 4149 Arrel offers a unique opportunity for homebuyers with vision. Presenting a shell of a single-family residence, this small home awaits your creative touch to transform it into your dream haven. Though currently featuring one bedroom and one bathroom, the expansive land provides ample space for expansion or outdoor amenities. The property includes a detached garage. This diamond in the rough is perfect for those who appreciate the potential and are eager to invest sweat equity into crafting a personalized retreat. Seize the chance to design, build, and finish a home that truly reflects your style and meets your needs. Let 4149 Arrel be the canvas for your masterpiece in homeownership.

2. 2026-03-04
   listed $110,000 Active 782-char remark

   Show marketing remark (782 chars)

   Nestled on a sprawling 1.25-acre lot in the community of Poland, OH, this property at 4149 Arrel offers a unique opportunity for homebuyers with vision. Presenting a shell of a single-family residence, this small home awaits your creative touch to transform it into your dream haven. Though currently featuring one bedroom and one bathroom, the expansive land provides ample space for expansion or outdoor amenities. The property includes a detached garage. This diamond in the rough is perfect for those who appreciate the potential and are eager to invest sweat equity into crafting a personalized retreat. Seize the chance to design, build, and finish a home that truly reflects your style and meets your needs. Let 4149 Arrel be the canvas for your masterpiece in homeownership.

3. 2024-05-08
   soldstatus $33,000 Closed 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Looking for a great place to build in Poland? More than 1.2 acres in Poland for your custom built home. Beautiful large lot. Many custom homes in the area. Condition of the building on the lot is unknown and possible unsafe. DO NOT ENTER.

4. 2024-04-04
   status Pending 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Looking for a great place to build in Poland? More than 1.2 acres in Poland for your custom built home. Beautiful large lot. Many custom homes in the area. Condition of the building on the lot is unknown and possible unsafe. DO NOT ENTER.

5. 2024-03-05
   listed $39,900 Active 238-char remark

   Show marketing remark (238 chars)

   Looking for a great place to build in Poland? More than 1.2 acres in Poland for your custom built home. Beautiful large lot. Many custom homes in the area. Condition of the building on the lot is unknown and possible unsafe. DO NOT ENTER.

6. 2023-10-10
   historical
7. 2023-09-11
   status Active
8. 2023-07-07
   status Pending
9. 2023-04-24
   status Active
10. 2023-04-07
    status Pending
11. 2023-04-04
    listed $39,900 Active
12. 1996-05-24
    soldstatus $34,200
13. 1996-03-10
    listed $34,000
14. 1995-09-22
    soldstatus $20,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast OH · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $671 · $56/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$444/yr (+$37/mo · 66.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥95°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$671
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$882
• − Management: −$882
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$411
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$99
• After-tax cash flow: $1,352/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Poland Local
• NCES district ID: 3904834
• Math proficiency: 70% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 78% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $66,236
• Composite: 64.21/100
• National rank: #564
• State rank: #94 of 656 in OH

Livability — Youngstown

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #99
• US rank: #1506

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Mahoning County · 84,956 people
• City population: 28,503
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• Population (ZIP): 23,917
• Household income: $79,808
• Rent vs Own: 15.2% rent · 84.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 411.0

Population outlook (Mahoning County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 223,932 people
• By 2030: 218,387 · -2.5%
• By 2040: 205,367 · -8.3%
• By 2050: 193,606 · -13.5%
• By 2075: 173,694 · -22.4%
• By 2100: 151,147 · -32.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (91%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 91% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Other Indo-European 2% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Mahoning

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+9.4) · D 44.9% · R 54.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.1pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: -9.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+9.4 2020: R+1.9 2016: D+3.0 2012: D+27.7 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -65.78%
• Current HPI: 210.5511
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Youngstown-Warren-Boardman, OH-PA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.98%
• F500 in state: 48

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in OH)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	3	$145B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$49B
▸Financial Services	3	$24B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$93B
▸Aerospace / Defense	2	$47B
▸Utilities	2	$33B

Price history

+399.5% since first listed

14 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-30 Price Changed $99,900 MLSNOW
• 2026-03-04 Listed $110,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-05-08 Sold (MLS) $33,000 MLSNOW
• 2024-04-04 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2024-03-05 Listed $39,900 MLSNOW
• 2023-10-10 Listing Removed — MLSNOW
• 2023-09-11 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2023-07-07 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2023-04-24 Relisted — MLSNOW
• 2023-04-07 Pending — MLSNOW
• 2023-04-04 Listed $39,900 MLSNOW
• 1996-05-24 Sold (Public Records) $34,200 Public Records
• 1996-03-10 Listed $34,000 MLSNOW
• 1995-09-22 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-3.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $671 · -1.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.