74900 Island Mountain Rd

Laytonville, CA 95454

$99,000C+

1 bd · None ba · 1,600 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Pending · 366 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,198/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax + insurance: −$165
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $263/mo
• Annual: $3,151/yr
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.37%
• DSCR: 1.51
• 1% rule: 1.21%
• Cash to close: $27,720

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated poor.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• In year one you build about $46 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $-638 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,291 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Laytonville Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,059 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laytonville Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 226 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.5% in Laytonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Major: Exposed plumbing — Exposed plumbing in kitchen and bath
• Major: Missing cabinets — Exposed plumbing and missing cabinets
• Major: Missing windows — Missing windows
• Major: Weathered siding — Weathered siding
• Major: Exposed subflooring — Exposed subflooring