74900 Island Mountain Rd · Laytonville, CA 95454

$99,000

1 bd · None ba · 1,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 366 Days on market

Poor condition 80 ac lot ↓ 43% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.5/30.0
• DSCR +9.1/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +7.1/10.0
• Appreciation +4.7/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

Key facts

• Seasonal creeks
• Usable open land
• Productive well

Tags

• 80 STUNNING ACRES
• WOOD BURNING STOVE
• LARGE POND
• USABLE OPEN LAND
• SEASONAL CREEKS
• PRODUCTIVE WELL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/?-bath single-family listed at $99k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $263 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $87k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 9.5% vs local median 2.5% in Laytonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 45/100 on livability (#1,291 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Watch: health & safety D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Laytonville Unified (rural): math 25% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #1,059 of 1,400 in CA (top 76%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Laytonville Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #973 of 1,571 statewide, top 73%, 226 students, 68% FRL).
• Market conditions: 55 active listings in the ZIP; 8 units permitted in Mendocino County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $46 of equity ($684 loan paydown + $-638 appreciation (-0.6% local appreciation)).
• Mendocino County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-0.6% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 366 days — a 12% lower offer ($87k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $76k (43%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 9→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $87,120 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 366 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.21% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.48%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.37%
• DSCR: 1.51
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.64% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 8.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.39×
• Total profit: $10,886
• Equity at exit: $25,598

10-year hold

• IRR: 14.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.47×
• Total profit: $40,826
• Equity at exit: $28,358

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95454

• Home prices YoY: -0.5%
• Active inventory: 55
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,198 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$252
• Net cashflow: $263

Break-even live

Break-even rent $866

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 73%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $331	-5% $297	+0% $263	+5% $228	+10% $194
Rent	-10% $168	-5% $215	+0% $263	+5% $310	+10% $357
Rate	-1.0pp $312	-0.5pp $288	base $263	+0.5pp $237	+1.0pp $211

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-17
   status $99,000 Pending 366 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 366 DOM
3. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 365 DOM
4. 2026-06-14
   days on market $99,000 Active 363 DOM
5. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,000 Active 362 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 359 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $99,000 Active 358 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 357 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 356 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $99,000 Active 353 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 352 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 351 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 350 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 349 DOM
15. 2026-05-10
    status Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

16. 2026-04-30
    status Pending 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

17. 2026-04-16
    price $99,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

18. 2026-02-23
    status Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

19. 2026-02-11
    status Pending 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

20. 2025-12-06
    price $99,500 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

21. 2025-07-23
    price $135,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

22. 2025-06-04
    price $145,000 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

23. 2025-05-09
    listed $175,000 Active 654-char remark

    Show marketing remark (654 chars)

    Discover 80 stunning acres in scenic Mendocino County, 1.45 Hours from Highway 101 with approximately one hour of dirt road. The property features a 1,600 sf, NOT permitted, cabin with kitchen, wood stove, and sweeping views; half was previously used for cultivation and could convert to living space. Pond has been sited by the Water Board for removal but it does have seasonal creeks, usable open land, productive NON permitted well, natural spring, and deeded Eel River access. Mostly treed with sloping cascading meadows. Off-grid with no power or septic but as out house bathroom. Ideal retreat or hunting property. Owner will finance with 30k down.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 27% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 9 d/yr ≥102°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 43 unhealthy d/yr today · 44 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,381
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,150
• − Management: −$1,150
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $1,674
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$402
• After-tax cash flow: $2,749/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This property requires extensive renovations, including kitchen and bathroom renovations, exterior siding repair, flooring replacement, and interior wall repair and painting. The property is currently not move-in ready and has poor condition.

Repairs flagged

• Major Exposed plumbing — Exposed plumbing in kitchen and bath
• Major Missing cabinets — Exposed plumbing and missing cabinets
• Major Missing windows — Missing windows
• Major Weathered siding — Weathered siding
• Major Exposed subflooring — Exposed subflooring

Value-add opportunities

• Both Kitchen renovation — Renovating the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value
• Both Bathroom renovation — Renovating the bathroom will improve both resale and rental value
• Both Exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve both resale and rental value
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring will improve both resale and rental value
• Both Interior wall repair and painting — Repairing and painting the interior walls will improve both resale and rental value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed plumbing · Exposed plumbing in kitchen and bath	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing cabinets · Exposed plumbing and missing cabinets	Major	$15,000–50,000
Missing windows · Missing windows	Major	$15,000–50,000
Weathered siding · Weathered siding	Major	$15,000–50,000
Exposed subflooring · Exposed subflooring	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 5 items		$75,000–250,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Kitchen renovation — Renovating the kitchen will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Bathroom renovation — Renovating the bathroom will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Exterior siding repair — Repairing the siding will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Flooring replacement — Replacing the flooring will improve both resale and rental value ↑
• Both Interior wall repair and painting — Repairing and painting the interior walls will improve both resale and rental value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Laytonville Unified
• NCES district ID: 0642580
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $40,913
• Composite: 28.15/100
• National rank: #12198
• State rank: #1059 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Laytonville

• Score: 45/100
• State rank: #1291
• US rank: #26554

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime F Employment F Housing B- Health & safety D+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,676

Population outlook (Mendocino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 84,643 people
• By 2030: 82,138 · -3.0%
• By 2040: 76,402 · -9.7%
• By 2050: 71,759 · -15.2%
• By 2075: 61,454 · -27.4%
• By 2100: 50,130 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 61% Two or more races 14% Hispanic / Latino 10% Native American 9% Asian 2% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Scotch-Irish 8% Russian 7% Italian 7%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Mendocino

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+26.8) · D 61.3% · R 34.5% · Other 4.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 42.8pp · 2024: 26.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+26.8 2020: D+35.8 2016: D+29.1 2012: D+37.6 2008: D+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.64%
• Current HPI: 134.7591
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

-43.4% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-10 Relisted — HAR
• 2026-04-30 Pending — HAR
• 2026-04-16 Price Changed $99,000 HAR
• 2026-02-23 Relisted — HAR
• 2026-02-11 Pending — HAR
• 2025-12-06 Price Changed $99,500 HAR
• 2025-07-23 Price Changed $135,000 HAR
• 2025-06-04 Price Changed $145,000 HAR
• 2025-05-09 Listed $175,000 HAR