773 Henson Rd

Smithland, KY 42081

$214,900F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · Built 2008 · SingleFamily · Active · 134 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,211/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax + insurance: −$358
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-528/mo
• Annual: $-6,338/yr
• Cap rate: 3.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.53%
• DSCR: 0.53
• 1% rule: 0.56%
• Cash to close: $60,172

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-528 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (43.6% below list).
• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $121k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#283 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston County (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Livingston Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 362 students, 62% FRL); Livingston County Middle School (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 252 students, 60% FRL); Livingston Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 329 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP.
• Livingston County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.