773 Henson Rd · Smithland, KY 42081

$214,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 134 Days on market

Built 2008 10 ac lot $137/sqft · 15% above area Est $187k · 15% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +4.8/30.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• 1% rule +0.6/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Located on 10 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is set in a peaceful location with plenty of space between neighbors. The primary bedroom is located on one side of the house, separate from the other bedrooms. The property includes a covered front porch, a shed, and a small outbuilding, allowing for flexible use and storage. Ideal for those looking for space, privacy, and a quiet setting.

Key facts

• Covered front porch
• Shed
• 10 acres

Tags

• 10 ACRES
• QUIET DEAD-END ROAD
• COVERED FRONT PORCH
• SHED
• SMALL OUTBUILDING
• SPACE BETWEEN NEIGHBORS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $215k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-528 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $138k (35.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $121k (43.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $121k (43.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#283 in KY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Livingston County (rural): math 27% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #80 of 165 in KY (top 48%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: South Livingston Elementary School (math 27% / reading 37%, grade F, #348 of 676 statewide, top 55%, 362 students, 62% FRL); Livingston County Middle School (math 32% / reading 43%, grade F, #73 of 217 statewide, top 36%, 252 students, 60% FRL); Livingston Central High School (math 22% / reading 37%, grade F, #127 of 254 statewide, top 58%, 329 students, 47% FRL) — zoned schools at 56% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $23k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $21k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Livingston County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$37k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 134 days — a 12% lower offer ($189k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $121,132 (43.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 134 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 44% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.56% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.34%
• Cash-on-cash: -10.53%
• DSCR: 0.53
• GRM: 14.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $187,000
• List price: $214,900
• Delta: 14.92%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 1 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 16.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.39×
• Total profit: $83,418
• Equity at exit: $193,599

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.52×
• Total profit: $272,144
• Equity at exit: $417,503

Cash invested: $60,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 42081

• Home prices YoY: 27.4%
• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 14.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,211 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,127
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$269 /mo · $3,224/yr
• Insurance: −$90
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$254
• Net cashflow: $-528

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,880

Max offer price $138,471

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-380	-5% $-454	+0% $-528	+5% $-602	+10% $-677
Rent	-10% $-624	-5% $-576	+0% $-528	+5% $-480	+10% $-432
Rate	-1.0pp $-420	-0.5pp $-474	base $-528	+0.5pp $-584	+1.0pp $-641

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $53,725
• Closing costs: $6,447
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-16
   days on market $214,900 Active 134 DOM
2. 2026-06-15
   days on market $214,900 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-13
   days on market $214,900 Active 131 DOM
4. 2026-06-12
   days on market $214,900 Active 130 DOM
5. 2026-06-09
   days on market $214,900 Active 127 DOM
6. 2026-06-08
   days on market $214,900 Active 126 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $214,900 Active 125 DOM
8. 2026-06-05
   days on market $214,900 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $214,900 Active 121 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $214,900 Active 120 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $214,900 Active 119 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 118 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $214,900 Active 117 DOM
14. 2026-02-03
    listed $214,900 Active 437-char remark

    Show marketing remark (437 chars)

    Located on 10 acres at the end of a quiet dead-end road, this three-bedroom, two-bathroom home is set in a peaceful location with plenty of space between neighbors. The primary bedroom is located on one side of the house, separate from the other bedrooms. The property includes a covered front porch, a shed, and a small outbuilding, allowing for flexible use and storage. Ideal for those looking for space, privacy, and a quiet setting.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 5% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,536
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,038
• − Property taxes: −$3,224
• − Insurance: −$1,074
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,163
• − Management: −$1,163
• − Depreciation: −$6,252
• Taxable loss: −$10,377
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,491
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,848/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Livingston County
• NCES district ID: 2103510
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $41,875
• Composite: 27.87/100
• National rank: #6873
• State rank: #80 of 165 in KY

Livability — Smithland

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #283
• US rank: #13775

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,325

Population outlook (Livingston County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 8,790 people
• By 2030: 8,413 · -4.3%
• By 2040: 7,709 · -12.3%
• By 2050: 7,090 · -19.3%
• By 2075: 6,046 · -31.2%
• By 2100: 5,202 · -40.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (98%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 98%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 15% Italian 14% Serbian 4%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Livingston

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+63.0) · D 17.8% · R 80.9% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -35.4pp toward R · 2008: -27.6pp · 2024: -63.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+63.0 2020: R+61.4 2016: R+57.8 2012: R+38.6 2008: R+27.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 38.74%
• Current HPI: 180.14
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-02-03 Listed $214,900 WKRMLS

Property tax history

-6.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $248 · -8.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.