3449 Addison Rd

Geneva, OH 44041

$189,900D

4 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,608 sqft · Built 1920 · SingleFamily · Active · 79 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,549/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$996
• Tax + insurance: −$250
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$325
• Net cashflow: $-22/mo
• Annual: $-269/yr
• Cap rate: 6.15%
• Cash-on-cash: -0.51%
• DSCR: 0.98
• 1% rule: 0.82%
• Cash to close: $53,172

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $190k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-22 ($-269/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $186k (2.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $155k (18.4% below list).
• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($179k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $155k (18.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#291 in OH, #4,770 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute F, employment F.
• Geneva Area City (town): math 52% / reading 60% proficiency, ranked #362 of 656 in OH (top 55%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Geneva Platt R. Spencer Elementary School (math 43% / reading 41%, grade F, #1,030 of 1,584 statewide, top 66%, 402 students, 0% FRL); Geneva Middle School (math 49% / reading 61%, grade B-, #335 of 654 statewide, top 52%, 511 students, 62% FRL); Geneva High School (math 47% / reading 62%, grade C-, #303 of 781 statewide, top 42%, 658 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools at 42% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 88 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 155 units permitted in Ashtabula County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Ashtabula County population projected at -22% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 4 sale attempts since 23y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $60k; list at $190k implies a 216% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Cap rate 6.2% vs local median 4.5% in Geneva — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 18% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.