3009 Whitetail Cir

Forney, TX 75126

$283,000D-

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · Built 2014 · SingleFamily · Active · 38 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,221/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax + insurance: −$735
• HOA: −$45
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-510/mo
• Annual: $-6,115/yr
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.72%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $79,240

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (21.5% below list).
• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $193k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn El (math 19% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 697 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 26% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forney ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.