3009 Whitetail Cir · Forney, TX 75126

$283,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2014 0.26 ac lot $142/sqft · 14% below area Est $329k · 14% under $45/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +13.8/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Beautiful single story home built 2014 with vault ceiling entrance located at cul-de-sac street in great community with two community pools, Playgrounds and all schools. Model home plan with 42 inch cabinets, new granite countertop with under mount single bowl SS sink, new gas range, overhead microwave with vent in Kitchen. New paint, new wood like laminated flooring in LA, DA and hallway, new carpet in all Bedrooms. Large master bedroom with luxuries bathroom and good size master closet. Ceramic tile through out all wet area. Beautiful arches separate formal dining and living area. 2 inch blinds cover all windows. 14 Seer HVAC with gas heater, gas water heater, radiant barrier roofing and many more...

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac street
• 42 inch cabinets
• Granite countertop

Tags

• VAULT CEILING ENTRANCE
• CUL-DE-SAC STREET
• COMMUNITY POOLS
• 42 INCH CABINETS
• GRANITE COUNTERTOP
• GAS RANGE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Possession in 30-60 days or at closing
• Financial info: Acceptable financing: Cash, Conventional
• HOA & community: Mandatory association; Annual association fee ($535) covering full use of facilities; Managed by Essex Association Mgmt

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car); Covered parking space (1); Garage faces front
• Security: Burglar alarm; Carbon monoxide detector(s); Smoke detector(s)
• Utilities: City water; City sewer; Property in a municipal utility district
• Home design: Single-family residence; One story; Residential property
• Construction: Built in 2014; Brick construction; Composition roof
• Exterior features: Lot under 0.5 acre (approximately 0.256 acres); Subdivision: Heather Hollow Windmill Farms

Interior

• Kitchen: Natural stone/granite counters; Electric range; Dishwasher; Disposal
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on main level with dual sinks, garden tub, separate shower and walk-in closet; Three additional bedrooms on main level (two with walk-in closets)
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Open floorplan; Granite counters; Built-in cabinets (kitchen)
• Laundry & utility: Utility room on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $283k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-510 ($-6k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $193k (31.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $222k (21.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $193k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 76/100 on livability (#98 in TX, #3,339 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities C-, commute F.
• Forney ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 44% proficiency, ranked #234 of 826 in TX (top 28%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Blackburn El (math 19% / reading 22%, grade F, #3,515 of 4,322 statewide, top 82%, 697 students, 53% FRL) — zoned schools average 53% FRL vs 26% district-wide (27 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-22 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Forney ISD average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.4%/yr); 2179 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 1,747 units permitted in Kaufman County in 2024 (180 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Kaufman County population projected at +43% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($275k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 5y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 2.6% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $192,978 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.13%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.72%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 10.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $329,165
• List price: $283,000
• Delta: -14.02%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3235 Clear Springs Dr	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,886 (-6%)	3mo	$224,900	$119	80
3121 Granite Rock Trl	0.23mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,124 (+6%)	3mo	$299,900	$141	71
2114 Rose May Dr	0.58mi	3/2.0	1,930 (-4%)	1mo	$245,000	$127	66
2016 Brook Meadow Dr	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,810 (-10%)	4mo	$161,160	$89	57
2020 Brook Meadow Dr	0.50mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,160 (+8%)	3mo	$259,000	$120	54
2142 Bluebell	0.57mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,790 (-10%)	2mo	$250,000	$140	49
2009 Brook Meadow Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-14%)	4mo	$205,000	$120	48
2115 Rose May Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,743 (-13%)	2mo	$255,000	$146	46
2110 Preston Trl	0.52mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,743 (-13%)	4mo	$259,900	$149	46
2907 Hanscom St	0.52mi	4/2.5 (+1)	2,264 (+13%)	4mo	$360,000	$159	44
2100 Aster Trl	0.64mi	4/2.0 (+1)	2,284 (+14%)	3mo	$269,000	$118	39
2010 Misty Hollow Ct	0.75mi	3/2.0	1,714 (-14%)	3mo	$205,900	$120	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 1.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -31.8%
• Equity multiple: -0.03×
• Total profit: $-81,567
• Equity at exit: $42,196

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.7%
• Equity multiple: -0.59×
• Total profit: $-125,731
• Equity at exit: $24,469

Cash invested: $79,240 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75126

• Rents YoY: 1.4%
• Active inventory: 2179
• Price-to-rent: 10.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,221 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,484
• Tax from tax record: −$617 /mo · $7,402/yr
• Insurance: −$118
• HOA: −$45
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$466
• Net cashflow: $-510

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,866

Max offer price $192,978

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $70,750
• Closing costs: $8,490
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4432 Thalia Way Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1816	$2,100	$1.16	44d	1	0.09mi
4254 Calla Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1983	$2,400	$1.21	44d	1	0.15mi
4222 Calla Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1981	$1,950	$0.98	17d	1	0.20mi
3125 Granite Rock Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2090	$2,350	$1.12	19d	1	0.22mi
4146 Perch Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2456	$2,500	$1.02	21d	1	0.22mi
2121 Juniper Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1935	$2,249	$1.16	3d	1	0.31mi
3111 Marble Falls Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1943	$2,145	$1.10	44d	1	0.34mi
3100 Marble Falls Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2124	$2,195	$1.03	44d	1	0.37mi
2029 Cone Flower Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1604	$1,816	$1.13	7d	1	0.39mi
3111 Flint Rock Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2185	$2,295	$1.05	7d	1	0.42mi
2026 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2160	$2,315	$1.07	44d	1	0.43mi
3005 Guadalupe Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2169	$2,195	$1.01	44d	1	0.43mi
3010 Sweetwater Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	2200	$2,200	$1.00	44d	1	0.46mi
2015 Gardenia Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1598	$1,850	$1.16	21d	1	0.47mi
2006 Brook Meadow Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	1912	$2,050	$1.07	44d	1	0.50mi
3018 Sweetwater Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1532	$1,950	$1.27	6d	1	0.50mi
2009 Brook Meadow Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1714	$1,800	$1.05	44d	1	0.52mi
2902 Hanscom St Forney, TX	4.0	3.5	2657	$3,200	$1.20	44d	1	0.53mi
2020 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2323	$2,070	$0.89	44d	1	0.53mi
2000 Natchez Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1551	$1,819	$1.17	44d	1	0.56mi
2214 Sumac Dr Forney, TX	4.0	2.5	2055	$2,070	$1.01	44d	1	0.59mi
2100 Aster Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2284	$2,190	$0.96	4d	1	0.62mi
1108 Halifax Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,835	$1.22	17d	1	0.64mi
1108 Halifax Ln Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1502	$1,835	$1.22	7d	1	0.64mi
2101 Wildwood Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1558	$1,900	$1.22	44d	1	0.64mi
2004 Chisolm Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1708	$2,150	$1.26	19d	1	0.65mi
2027 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	2108	$1,975	$0.94	44d	1	0.65mi
2023 Fair Crest Trl Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2330	$2,095	$0.90	21d	1	0.66mi
2106 Bluebell Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1541	$1,950	$1.27	5d	1	0.67mi
4620 Elderberry St Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1856	$1,850	$1.00	21d	1	0.78mi
3039 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1690	$2,000	$1.18	44d	1	0.79mi
1100 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1553	$1,725	$1.11	7d	1	0.81mi
1100 Alexandria Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1574	$1,895	$1.20	44d	1	0.81mi
1019 Chelsea Ln Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1840	$2,230	$1.21	5d	1	0.83mi
3007 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1650	$2,200	$1.33	24d	1	0.85mi
3016 Boran Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1681	$2,100	$1.25	44d	1	0.85mi
1750 Gleasondale Pl Forney, TX	3.0	2.0	1633	$2,200	$1.35	44d	1	0.85mi
5015 Royal Springs Dr Forney, TX	3.0	2.5	2066	$2,125	$1.03	44d	1	0.86mi
1105 N Gateway Blvd Forney, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	987	$1,842	$1.87	1d	33	0.86mi
3095 Barzona Rd Forney, TX	4.0	2.0	1683	$1,850	$1.10	17d	1	0.87mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $45 · $540/yr
• Likely covers: watergaslandscapingpool

Listing history 20 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $283,000 Active 38 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $283,000 Active 37 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $283,000 Active 36 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $283,000 Active 35 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 33 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $283,000 Active 32 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $283,000 Active 29 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $283,000 Active 28 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $283,000 Active 27 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $283,000 Active 24 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $283,000 Active 23 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $283,000 Active 22 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $283,000 Active 21 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $283,000 Active 20 DOM
15. 2026-05-11
    listed $283,000 Active 670-char remark
16. 2022-11-10
    soldstatus
17. 2021-02-22
    soldstatus Sold 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Beautiful single story home built 2014 with vault ceiling entrance located at cul-de-sac street in great community with two community pools, Playgrounds and all schools. Model home plan with 42 inch cabinets, new granite countertop with under mount single bowl SS sink, new gas range, overhead microwave with vent in Kitchen. New paint, new wood like laminated flooring in LA, DA and hallway, new carpet in all Bedrooms. Large master bedroom with luxuries bathroom and good size master closet. Ceramic tile through out all wet area. Beautiful arches separate formal dining and living area. 2 inch blinds cover all windows. 14 Seer HVAC with gas heater, gas water heater, radiant barrier roofing and many more...

18. 2021-02-05
    status Pending 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Beautiful single story home built 2014 with vault ceiling entrance located at cul-de-sac street in great community with two community pools, Playgrounds and all schools. Model home plan with 42 inch cabinets, new granite countertop with under mount single bowl SS sink, new gas range, overhead microwave with vent in Kitchen. New paint, new wood like laminated flooring in LA, DA and hallway, new carpet in all Bedrooms. Large master bedroom with luxuries bathroom and good size master closet. Ceramic tile through out all wet area. Beautiful arches separate formal dining and living area. 2 inch blinds cover all windows. 14 Seer HVAC with gas heater, gas water heater, radiant barrier roofing and many more...

19. 2021-01-29
    historical Active Option Contract 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Beautiful single story home built 2014 with vault ceiling entrance located at cul-de-sac street in great community with two community pools, Playgrounds and all schools. Model home plan with 42 inch cabinets, new granite countertop with under mount single bowl SS sink, new gas range, overhead microwave with vent in Kitchen. New paint, new wood like laminated flooring in LA, DA and hallway, new carpet in all Bedrooms. Large master bedroom with luxuries bathroom and good size master closet. Ceramic tile through out all wet area. Beautiful arches separate formal dining and living area. 2 inch blinds cover all windows. 14 Seer HVAC with gas heater, gas water heater, radiant barrier roofing and many more...

20. 2021-01-28
    listed $245,800 Active 713-char remark

    Show marketing remark (713 chars)

    Beautiful single story home built 2014 with vault ceiling entrance located at cul-de-sac street in great community with two community pools, Playgrounds and all schools. Model home plan with 42 inch cabinets, new granite countertop with under mount single bowl SS sink, new gas range, overhead microwave with vent in Kitchen. New paint, new wood like laminated flooring in LA, DA and hallway, new carpet in all Bedrooms. Large master bedroom with luxuries bathroom and good size master closet. Ceramic tile through out all wet area. Beautiful arches separate formal dining and living area. 2 inch blinds cover all windows. 14 Seer HVAC with gas heater, gas water heater, radiant barrier roofing and many more...

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,402 · $617/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,402 · $617/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $26,647
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,852
• − Property taxes: −$7,402
• − Insurance: −$1,415
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,132
• − Management: −$2,132
• − HOA: −$540
• − Depreciation: −$8,233
• Taxable loss: −$11,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,654
• After-tax cash flow: $-3,461/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Forney ISD
• NCES district ID: 4819560
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -20.00%
• Reading proficiency: 44% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $86,679
• Composite: 40.07/100
• National rank: #3812
• State rank: #234 of 826 in TX

Livability — Forney

• Score: 76/100
• State rank: #98
• US rank: #3339

Category grades

Amenities C- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Kaufman County · 122,338 people
• City population: 84,799
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 84,799
• Household income: $103,673
• Rent vs Own: 19.5% rent · 80.5% own
• Severe rent burden: 1306.0

Population outlook (Kaufman County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 138,716 people
• By 2030: 150,815 · +8.7%
• By 2040: 174,877 · +26.1%
• By 2050: 198,020 · +42.8%
• By 2075: 251,908 · +81.6%
• By 2100: 285,325 · +105.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.68)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Black 25% Hispanic / Latino 23% Two or more races 14% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% Arabic 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Kaufman

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.9) · D 35.6% · R 63.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.9pp toward D · 2008: -35.8pp · 2024: -27.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.9 2020: R+33.9 2016: R+47.0 2012: R+44.4 2008: R+35.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.93%
• Current HPI: 148.5749
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.42%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.1% since first listed

6 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-11 Listed $283,000 NTREIS
• 2022-11-10 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2021-02-22 Sold (MLS) — NTREIS
• 2021-02-05 Pending — NTREIS
• 2021-01-29 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2021-01-28 Listed $245,800 NTREIS

Property tax history

+22.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,402 · -4.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.