979 Private Road 3784

Hawk Cove, TX 75474

$197,000D

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Built 1984 · Manufactured · Active · 33 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,383/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax + insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-139/mo
• Annual: $-1,669/yr
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.70%
• Cash to close: $55,160

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $197k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (29.8% below list).
• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $138k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,499 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL); C B Thompson Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 628 students, 77% FRL); Wh Ford H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 786 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Hawk Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.