979 Private Road 3784 · Hawk Cove, TX 75474

$197,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 924 sqft · Manufactured · 33 Days on market

Built 1984 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +9.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +2.7/10.0
• Schools +2.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Mobile home property on 1 acre. Lake is minutes away! Fully fenced, septic, all utilities. The property was remodeled in 2021, tankless water heater, ac all new hardwood floors. Front porch with a side fenced in area for goats or small animals. Enjoy the tranquility of country living still close to the city. Perfect vacation home, airbnb or starter home. Newer bathrooms, windows and all appliances.

Key facts

• Fully fenced
• Front porch
• New hardwood floors

Tags

• FULLY FENCED
• TANKLESS WATER HEATER
• NEW HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FRONT PORCH
• SIDE FENCED IN AREA
• NEWER BATHROOMS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property is residential manufactured home on 1 acre; County: Hunt; Transaction type: For Sale
• Financial info: Treat as clear loan type; No second mortgage; Listing terms: Cash or Conventional
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: On-site parking
• Utilities: Electricity available; Septic
• Home design: Manufactured home; Single-story (one level); Attached
• Construction: Built in 1984; Preowned
• Exterior features: 1.00 acre lot; Outside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric range; Tankless water heater
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms (both on level 1)
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Decorative lighting; One living area; One dining area; Total of 3 rooms
• Laundry & utility: Tankless water heater (listed with appliances)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $197k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-139 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $172k (12.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $138k (29.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $138k (29.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.6% in Hawk Cove — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#1,499 in TX) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Quinlan ISD (rural): math 27% / reading 34% proficiency, ranked #610 of 826 in TX (top 74%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D C Cannon El (765 students, 81% FRL); C B Thompson Middle (math 33% / reading 36%, grade F, #858 of 1,662 statewide, top 54%, 628 students, 77% FRL); Wh Ford H S (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,085 of 1,632 statewide, top 67%, 786 students, 68% FRL) — zoned schools average 75% FRL vs 60% district-wide (16 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 336 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,289 units permitted in Hunt County in 2024 (527 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $21k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $20k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Hunt County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 33 days — a 3% lower offer ($191k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $138,311 (29.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 33 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 30% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.70% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.45%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.03%
• DSCR: 0.87
• GRM: 11.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $98,376
• Equity at exit: $177,473

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.38×
• Total profit: $296,548
• Equity at exit: $382,728

Cash invested: $55,160 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75474

• Home prices YoY: 7.5%
• Active inventory: 336
• Price-to-rent: 11.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,383 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,033
• Tax from tax record: −$117 /mo · $1,399/yr
• Insurance: −$82
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$290
• Net cashflow: $-139

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,559

Max offer price $172,434

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-28	-5% $-83	+0% $-139	+5% $-195	+10% $-251
Rent	-10% $-248	-5% $-194	+0% $-139	+5% $-84	+10% $-30
Rate	-1.0pp $-40	-0.5pp $-89	base $-139	+0.5pp $-190	+1.0pp $-242

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,250
• Closing costs: $5,910
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
10481 Private Road 3709 #11 Wills Point, TX	2.0	2.0	930	$1,500	$1.61	0d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $197,000 Active 33 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $197,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $197,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $197,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $197,000 Active 27 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $197,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $197,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $197,000 Active 20 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $197,000 Active 19 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $197,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $197,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $197,000 Active 14 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $197,000 Active 13 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $197,000 Active 12 DOM
15. 2026-05-19
    listed $197,000 Active
16. 2025-06-18
    historical
17. 2025-05-12
    price $205,000
18. 2025-05-12
    price $200,000
19. 2025-04-29
    listed $225,000 Active
20. 2024-02-06
    historical
21. 2024-01-24
    listed $175,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,399 · $117/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,605 · $300/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,207/yr (+$184/mo · 157.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,597
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,035
• − Property taxes: −$1,399
• − Insurance: −$985
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,328
• − Management: −$1,328
• − Depreciation: −$5,731
• Taxable loss: −$5,208
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,250
• After-tax cash flow: $-419/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Quinlan ISD
• NCES district ID: 4836240
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 34% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $45,461
• Composite: 26.16/100
• National rank: #7271
• State rank: #610 of 826 in TX

Livability — Hawk Cove

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #1499
• US rank: #25625

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Hunt County · 71,969 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 17,671
• Household income: $64,103
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 181.0

Population outlook (Hunt County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 97,090 people
• By 2030: 100,452 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 106,544 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 111,218 · +14.6%
• By 2075: 121,695 · +25.3%
• By 2100: 123,683 · +27.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 19% Two or more races 8% Asian 1% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 17%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hunt

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.5) · D 21.9% · R 77.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.9pp toward R · 2008: -40.6pp · 2024: -55.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.5 2020: R+52.5 2016: R+56.3 2012: R+51.2 2008: R+40.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 33.95%
• Current HPI: 484.21
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+12.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-19 Listed $197,000 NTREIS
• 2025-06-18 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $205,000 NTREIS
• 2025-05-12 Price Changed $200,000 NTREIS
• 2025-04-29 Listed $225,000 NTREIS
• 2024-02-06 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-01-24 Listed $175,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

-1.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,399 · -1.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.