405 N Moonlight Dr

Bluewater, AZ 85344

$136,000B-

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Built 1970 · Manufactured · Active · 87 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,040/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax + insurance: −$227
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $672/mo
• Annual: $8,060/yr
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.17%
• DSCR: 1.94
• 1% rule: 1.50%
• Cash to close: $38,080

Investor read

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k. Condition is rated fair.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $672 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $128k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 9.9% in Bluewater — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: Exposed framing — Exposed framing indicates potential structural issues or lack of finish.
• Minor: Landscaping — No visible landscaping or curb appeal.