405 N Moonlight Dr · Bluewater, AZ 85344

$136,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,344 sqft · Manufactured · 87 Days on market

Built 1970 Fair condition 5,000 sqft lot $101/sqft · 6% below area Est $144k · 6% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.1/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.2/5.0
• Schools +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

ON LEASED LAND * * Well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1¾ bath doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Bluewater Lagoon community in Parker. Spacious living room features French doors opening to a covered front deck. Dining room includes a built-in hutch and bay window. Updated kitchen offers upgraded cabinetry, new wood laminate flooring, attractive backsplash, double stainless sink, and appliances including double-door refrigerator, wall oven, gas cooktop, microwave vent hood, and dishwasher. Bonus family room provides additional living space and a convenient laundry closet. Guest bedroom is generously sized with a large closet. Primary suite features his and hers closets, sliding door access to the rear patio, and an ensuite bath with updated vanity and tub/shower combo. Exterior amenities include a 15x25 garage with automatic door, carport parking, covered front deck, covered rear patio, storage shed, and easy-care landscaping. Bluewater Lagoon is a leased-land subdivision offering riverfront access, boat launch, swimming pool, and secure gated entry. * *

Key facts

• Bonus family room
• Boat launch
• Riverfront access

Tags

• COVERED FRONT DECK
• UPDATED KITCHEN
• BONUS FAMILY ROOM
• RIVERFRONT ACCESS
• BOAT LAUNCH
• SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $136k. Condition is rated fair.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $672 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $136k).
• Recommended offer: $128k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 9.9% in Bluewater — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#81 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A-; Watch: health & safety C-, employment D+, schools F.
• Parker Unified School District (4510) (town): math 18% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #200 of 249 in AZ (top 80%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 147 active listings in the ZIP; 92 units permitted in La Paz County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $940 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• La Paz County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $38k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 87 days — a 6% lower offer ($128k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $127,840 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 87 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.50% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.22%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.17%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 5.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $144,451
• List price: $136,000
• Delta: -5.85%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 N Moonlight Dr	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,296 (-4%)	6mo	$132,000	$102	86
405 N Stardust Ln	0.04mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,372 (+2%)	10mo	$130,000	$95	81
337 N Moonlight Dr	0.06mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	1mo	$190,000	$132	80
245 E Riverfront Dr	0.25mi	2/2.0	1,344 (0%)	13mo	$275,000	$205	78
471 Bluewater Dr	0.12mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,216 (-10%)	0mo	$124,900	$103	73
409 N Misty Ln	0.09mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,500 (+12%)	5mo	$122,000	$81	68
452 E Riverfront Dr	0.22mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,248 (-7%)	8mo	$289,000	$232	67
236 N Moonlight Dr	0.22mi	2/2.0	1,152 (-14%)	1mo	$134,000	$116	65
473 Bluewater Dr	0.30mi	2/2.0	1,440 (+7%)	13mo	$143,500	$100	63
484 E Riverfront Dr	0.35mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,392 (+4%)	15mo	$415,000	$298	60
324 N Misty Lane Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,152 (-14%)	11mo	$105,000	$91	58
516 Bluewater Dr	0.47mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,440 (+7%)	12mo	$265,000	$184	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 13.7%
• Equity multiple: 1.55×
• Total profit: $20,774
• Equity at exit: $20,278

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.92×
• Total profit: $73,302
• Equity at exit: $11,759

Cash invested: $38,080 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85344

• Active inventory: 147
• Price-to-rent: 5.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,040 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$713
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$170 /mo · $2,040/yr
• Insurance: −$57
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$428
• Net cashflow: $672

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,190

Max offer price $136,000

Occupancy floor 62%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,000
• Closing costs: $4,080
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $136,000 Active 87 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $136,000 Active 86 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $136,000 Active 85 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $136,000 Active 84 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $136,000 Active 82 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $136,000 Active 81 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $136,000 Active 79 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $136,000 Active 78 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $136,000 Active 77 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $136,000 Active 76 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $136,000 Active 73 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $136,000 Active 72 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $136,000 Active 71 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $136,000 Active 70 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $136,000 Active 69 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $136,000 Active 68 DOM
17. 2026-03-24
    listed $136,000 Active 1090-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1090 chars)

    ON LEASED LAND * * Well-maintained 2 bedroom, 1¾ bath doublewide manufactured home located in the desirable Bluewater Lagoon community in Parker. Spacious living room features French doors opening to a covered front deck. Dining room includes a built-in hutch and bay window. Updated kitchen offers upgraded cabinetry, new wood laminate flooring, attractive backsplash, double stainless sink, and appliances including double-door refrigerator, wall oven, gas cooktop, microwave vent hood, and dishwasher. Bonus family room provides additional living space and a convenient laundry closet. Guest bedroom is generously sized with a large closet. Primary suite features his and hers closets, sliding door access to the rear patio, and an ensuite bath with updated vanity and tub/shower combo. Exterior amenities include a 15x25 garage with automatic door, carport parking, covered front deck, covered rear patio, storage shed, and easy-care landscaping. Bluewater Lagoon is a leased-land subdivision offering riverfront access, boat launch, swimming pool, and secure gated entry. * *

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,480
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,618
• − Property taxes: −$2,040
• − Insurance: −$680
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,958
• − Management: −$1,958
• − Depreciation: −$3,956
• Taxable income: $6,268
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,504
• After-tax cash flow: $6,556/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 14 photos

Fair 45/100 Moderate rehab

The home requires moderate repairs and maintenance, with potential for significant value increase through painting and landscaping.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate Exposed framing — Exposed framing indicates potential structural issues or lack of finish.
• Minor Landscaping — No visible landscaping or curb appeal.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and curb appeal.
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and add value.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Exposed framing · Exposed framing indicates potential structural issues or lack of finish.	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
Landscaping · No visible landscaping or curb appeal.	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$3,500–18,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint touch-ups — Fresh paint can improve the home's appearance and curb appeal. ↑
• Both Landscaping — Landscaping can enhance the home's curb appeal and add value. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Parker Unified School District (4510)
• NCES district ID: 0405980
• Math proficiency: 18% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $34,354
• Composite: 14.76/100
• National rank: #9392
• State rank: #200 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Bluewater

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #81
• US rank: #12872

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A- Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Bluewater, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 9,069

Population outlook (La Paz County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 18,409 people
• By 2030: 17,592 · -4.4%
• By 2040: 16,600 · -9.8%
• By 2050: 16,328 · -11.3%
• By 2075: 17,075 · -7.2%
• By 2100: 17,042 · -7.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.72)
• Race & ethnicity: White 40% Hispanic / Latino 34% Native American 23% Two or more races 19% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 32%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 74% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 1% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · La Paz

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+44.2) · D 27.6% · R 71.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -28.5pp · 2024: -44.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+44.2 2020: R+38.8 2016: R+41.8 2012: R+32.2 2008: R+28.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -155.38%
• Current HPI: 198.2271
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-03-24 Listed $136,000 LHAR