Woodbury Plan

Commerce, GA 30529

$361,990D-

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,189 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 472 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,417/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,043
• Tax + insurance: −$649
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-782/mo
• Annual: $-9,385/yr
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• 1% rule: 0.62%
• Cash to close: $109,058

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $362k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-782 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (33.2% below list).
• It's been on market 472 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $242k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 156 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• At $2,417/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 472 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.