Woodbury Plan · Commerce, GA 30529

$361,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,189 sqft · SingleFamily · 472 Days on market

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.8/30.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.4/5.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• DSCR +0.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Austin Ridge, our new home community where comfort meets convenience just minutes from downtown Commerce, GA. This beautifully designed community offers spacious 3-5 bedroom homes with flexible layouts, quality finishes, and room to grow-perfect for families at every stage of life. Whether you're relaxing on your covered patio, enjoying a quiet evening by the fireplace, or hosting loved ones in your open-concept kitchen, life at Austin Ridge is all about feeling right at home. With easy access to I-85 and top-rated schools nearby, Austin Ridge offers the lifestyle you want in the location you love. Get up to $15,000 Flex Cash, an appliance package (refrigerator + washer dryer) on select homes, and ask about no payments until September 2026. Preferred Lender promotion ends 05/29/2026.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 471 days

🏗️ New construction. The $361,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $389,493.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $362k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-782 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $276k (23.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $242k (33.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $242k (33.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#271 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, amenities F.
• Jackson County (rural): math 38% / reading 37% proficiency, ranked #50 of 174 in GA (top 29%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.2%/yr); 151 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 15d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 2,167 units permitted in Jackson County in 2024 (59 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,417/mo this rent would consume 47% of the median local household income ($62k/yr) (locally 297% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $42k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $39k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jackson County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$67k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 472 days — a 12% lower offer ($319k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $241,728 (33.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 472 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 33% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -8.61%
• DSCR: 0.62
• GRM: 13.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $389,493
• List price: $361,990
• Delta: -7.06%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
338 Stella St. Lot 04	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,167 (-1%)	2mo	$383,920	$177	91
96 Sherwood Dr Lot 07	0.13mi	4/3.5	2,167 (-1%)	11mo	$375,999	$174	84
330 Stella St. Lot 03	0.07mi	4/2.5	2,443 (+12%)	8mo	$392,157	$161	67
96 Sherwood Dr Lot 07	0.56mi	4/3.5	2,167 (-1%)	11mo	$375,999	$174	63
80 Sherwood Dr Lot 06	0.07mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,939 (-11%)	7mo	$380,962	$196	63
543 Windsong Lake Dr	0.38mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,050 (-6%)	1mo	$360,000	$176	61
494 Bishop Ct	0.24mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,964 (-10%)	5mo	$304,000	$155	59
71 Northwood Dr	0.25mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,933 (-12%)	2mo	$346,000	$179	58
2289 Remington Dr	0.29mi	4/2.0	1,943 (-11%)	8mo	$299,000	$154	55
2204 Remington Dr	0.36mi	4/2.0	1,956 (-11%)	8mo	$330,000	$169	52
192 Louise Dr	0.62mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,039 (-7%)	7mo	$315,000	$154	43
80 Sherwood Dr Lot 06	0.56mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,939 (-11%)	7mo	$380,962	$196	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 17.5%
• Equity multiple: 2.42×
• Total profit: $155,272
• Equity at exit: $350,887

10-year hold

• IRR: 16.0%
• Equity multiple: 5.44×
• Total profit: $483,807
• Equity at exit: $756,700

Cash invested: $109,058 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 30529

• Home prices YoY: 6.6%
• Rents YoY: -4.2%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 12.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,417 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,043
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$487 /mo · $5,842/yr
• Insurance: −$162
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$508
• Net cashflow: $-782

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,407

Max offer price $276,330

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-513	-5% $-647	+0% $-782	+5% $-917	+10% $-1,051
Rent	-10% $-973	-5% $-878	+0% $-782	+5% $-687	+10% $-591
Rate	-1.0pp $-586	-0.5pp $-683	base $-782	+0.5pp $-883	+1.0pp $-986

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $97,373
• Closing costs: $11,685
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2446 Remington Dr Commerce, GA	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,500	$1.03	14d	1	0.20mi
2434 Remington Dr Commerce, GA	4.0	2.5	2432	$2,500	$1.03	14d	1	0.20mi
71 Northwood Dr Commerce, GA	3.0	3.0	1933	$2,400	$1.24	14d	1	0.26mi
9 Nolana Dr Commerce, GA	3.0–4.0	2.5–3.0	2254	$2,827	$1.25	14d	1	0.31mi
48 Leigh St Commerce, GA	3.0	2.0	1670	$1,950	$1.17	44d	1	0.78mi

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $361,990 Active 472 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $361,990 Active 471 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $361,990 Active 470 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $361,990 Active 469 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $361,990 Active 468 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $361,990 Active 466 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $361,990 Active 465 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $361,990 Active 463 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $361,990 Active 462 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $361,990 Active 461 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $361,990 Active 460 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $361,990 Active 455 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $361,990 Active 454 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $361,990 Active 453 DOM
15. 2026-05-30
    days on market $361,990 Active 452 DOM
16. 2025-03-05
    listed $361,990 Active 805-char remark

    Show marketing remark (805 chars)

    Welcome to Austin Ridge, our new home community where comfort meets convenience just minutes from downtown Commerce, GA. This beautifully designed community offers spacious 3-5 bedroom homes with flexible layouts, quality finishes, and room to grow-perfect for families at every stage of life. Whether you're relaxing on your covered patio, enjoying a quiet evening by the fireplace, or hosting loved ones in your open-concept kitchen, life at Austin Ridge is all about feeling right at home. With easy access to I-85 and top-rated schools nearby, Austin Ridge offers the lifestyle you want in the location you love. Get up to $15,000 Flex Cash, an appliance package (refrigerator + washer dryer) on select homes, and ask about no payments until September 2026. Preferred Lender promotion ends 05/29/2026.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 12% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 4 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,007
• − Mortgage interest: −$21,818
• − Property taxes: −$5,842
• − Insurance: −$1,947
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,321
• − Management: −$2,321
• − Depreciation: −$11,331
• Taxable loss: −$16,572
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,977
• After-tax cash flow: $-5,407/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jackson County
• NCES district ID: 1302940
• Math proficiency: 38% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 37% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $56,773
• Composite: 33.08/100
• National rank: #5566
• State rank: #50 of 174 in GA

Livability — Commerce

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #271
• US rank: #14693

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Jackson County · 50,436 people
• City population: 12,874
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• Population (ZIP): 12,874
• Household income: $62,168
• Rent vs Own: 38.0% rent · 62.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 297.0

Population outlook (Jackson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 68,403 people
• By 2030: 70,771 · +3.5%
• By 2040: 75,050 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 78,022 · +14.1%
• By 2075: 82,646 · +20.8%
• By 2100: 80,701 · +18.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 14% Black 11% Two or more races 9% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jackson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+55.1) · D 22.2% · R 77.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.8pp no change · 2008: -55.9pp · 2024: -55.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+55.1 2020: R+58.0 2016: R+63.9 2012: R+62.9 2008: R+55.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 28.53%
• Current HPI: 458.5304
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.25%
• Metro: Jefferson, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-03-05 Listed $361,990 Zillow