204 Honey Creek Loop Rd

Robbins, TN 38504

$165,000F

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Built 1992 · Manufactured · Active · 41 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,066/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax + insurance: −$275
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-298/mo
• Annual: $-3,577/yr
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.74%
• DSCR: 0.66
• 1% rule: 0.65%
• Cash to close: $46,200

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (35.4% below list).
• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $107k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#423 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fentress County (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #91 of 139 in TN (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Allardt Elementary (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #354 of 952 statewide, top 38%, 390 students, 0% FRL); Clarkrange High School (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #73 of 332 statewide, top 22%, 260 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP.
• Fentress County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.