204 Honey Creek Loop Rd · Robbins, TN 38504

$165,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,176 sqft · Manufactured public records · 40 Days on market

Built 1992 1.66 ac lot ↓ 6% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +6.2/30.0
• Appreciation +6.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.2/5.0
• Schools +2.1/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• DSCR +0.6/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 204 Honey Creek Loop Rd. in beautiful Allardt, Tennessee! This charming hobby farm sits on 1.66 unrestricted acres and offers the perfect blend of country living, functionality, and comfort -- all priced at $175,000. Originally built in 1992, this spacious mobile home has been thoughtfully expanded to provide approximately 2,006 square feet of living space featuring 3 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms. Inside, you'll find a warm and inviting layout complete with walk-in closets in every bedroom, a pantry, mudroom with a built-in six-station boot dryer, and an Amish-built wood-burning stove that adds both character and efficiency. The kitchen comes fully equipped with a double oven a

Key facts

• Walk-in closets
• Built-in boot dryer
• Deck ready for pool

Tags

• UNRESTRICTED ACRES
• WALK-IN CLOSETS
• BUILT-IN BOOT DRYER
• DOUBLE OVEN
• COVERED FRONT AND BACK PORCHES
• DECK READY FOR POOL

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property sits on approximately 1.66 acres (estimated)
• Financial info: Tax amounts and other financial details excluded
• HOA & community: No association

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car carport
• Security: No specific security features listed
• Utilities: Septic tank with perc test on file; Electric service
• Home design: Not attached to another building; Total building area approximately 2,006 (source: owner)
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Frame construction; Crawl space foundation; Year built not provided
• Exterior features: Storage building; Barn(s); Workshop; Country setting view; Irregular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Refrigerator included; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: Details on bedroom counts and levels not provided
• Flooring: Laminate; Hardwood; Vinyl; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating and other heating types; Ceiling fans; Window air conditioning units
• Interior features: Walk-in closet(s); Pantry; Eat-in kitchen; 14 total rooms; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Laundry details not provided

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-298 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $122k (26.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $107k (35.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $107k (35.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 44/100 on livability (#423 in TN) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Fentress County (rural): math 24% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #91 of 139 in TN (top 66%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Allardt Elementary (math 33% / reading 34%, grade F, #354 of 952 statewide, top 38%, 390 students, 0% FRL); Clarkrange High School (math 17% / reading 44%, grade F, #73 of 332 statewide, top 22%, 260 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 65% district-wide (65 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 30 active listings in the ZIP.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $5k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $4k appreciation (2.5% local appreciation)).
• Fentress County population projected at -19% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• By year 7, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$33k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 40 days — a 3% lower offer ($160k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $106,603 (35.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 40 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 35% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.12%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.74%
• DSCR: 0.66
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

2.45% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -1.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.92×
• Total profit: $-3,806
• Equity at exit: $69,178

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.8%
• Equity multiple: 1.41×
• Total profit: $19,100
• Equity at exit: $102,867

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Tennessee: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

14-day notice (URLTA); generally landlord-favorable; Nashville court paced moderate.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 38504

• Home prices YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 30
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,066 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$206 /mo · $2,475/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$224
• Net cashflow: $-298

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,443

Max offer price $121,862

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-184	-5% $-241	+0% $-298	+5% $-355	+10% $-412
Rent	-10% $-382	-5% $-340	+0% $-298	+5% $-256	+10% $-214
Rate	-1.0pp $-215	-0.5pp $-256	base $-298	+0.5pp $-341	+1.0pp $-384

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 40 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $165,000 Active 39 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $165,000 Active 37 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $165,000 Active 36 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $165,000 Active 35 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $165,000 Active 34 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $165,000 Active 32 DOM
8. 2026-06-12
   days on market $165,000 Active 31 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $165,000 Active 28 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 27 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    days on market $165,000 Active 26 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $165,000 Active 25 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    pricedays on market $165,000 Active 22 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 20 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
17. 2026-05-11
    listed $175,000 Active 1992-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,792
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$2,475
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,023
• − Management: −$1,023
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$6,597
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,583
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,994/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fentress County
• NCES district ID: 4701230
• Math proficiency: 24% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $30,419
• Composite: 20.6/100
• National rank: #8552
• State rank: #91 of 139 in TN

Livability — Robbins

• Score: 44/100
• State rank: #423
• US rank: #26713

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 496

Population outlook (Fentress County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 17,295 people
• By 2030: 16,749 · -3.2%
• By 2040: 15,443 · -10.7%
• By 2050: 14,077 · -18.6%
• By 2075: 11,482 · -33.6%
• By 2100: 9,658 · -44.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 10%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Fentress

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.8% · R 87.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -31.9pp toward R · 2008: -43.9pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+71.3 2016: R+67.5 2012: R+53.4 2008: R+43.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 2.45%
• Current HPI: 120.2823
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.78%
• F500 in state: 22

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	3	$91B
▸Retail	3	$72B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$88B
▸Paper / Packaging	1	$19B
▸Insurance	1	$13B
▸Energy	1	$12B

Price history

-5.7% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-02 Price Changed $165,000 Knoxville MLS
• 2026-05-11 Listed $175,000 Knoxville MLS

Property tax history

+13.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $236 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.