215 Larch Oval

Mount Pocono, PA 18466

$349,000D-

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,776 sqft · Built 1970 · SingleFamily · Active · 16 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,841/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,830
• Tax + insurance: −$499
• HOA: −$146
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$597
• Net cashflow: $-230/mo
• Annual: $-2,763/yr
• Cap rate: 5.50%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.83%
• DSCR: 0.87
• 1% rule: 0.81%
• Cash to close: $97,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $349k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-230 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $308k (11.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $284k (18.6% below list).
• It's been on market 16 days — a 2% lower offer ($344k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $284k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $11k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (2.4% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#362 in PA, #3,166 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: commute F.
• Pocono Mountain SD (rural): math 37% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #245 of 539 in PA (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Clear Run El Ctr (717 students, 77% FRL); Pocono Mountain West Jhs (math 8% / reading 32%, grade F, #441 of 512 statewide, top 86%, 713 students, 75% FRL); Pocono Mountain West Hs (math 82% / reading 92%, grade A, #8 of 437 statewide, top 2%, 1,512 students, 63% FRL) — zoned schools average 72% FRL vs 49% district-wide (23 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 358 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 278 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (52 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Monroe County population projected at -11% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• 6 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• Built in 1970 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.