16129 W Patrick Henry Rd

Wyndham, VA 23192

$260,000C-

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,270 sqft · Built 1955 · SingleFamily · Active · 30 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,487/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,363
• Tax + insurance: −$266
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$522
• Net cashflow: $335/mo
• Annual: $4,023/yr
• Cap rate: 7.84%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.53%
• DSCR: 1.25
• 1% rule: 0.96%
• Cash to close: $72,800

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $260k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $335 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $249k (4.3% below list).
• It's been on market 30 days — a 2% lower offer ($256k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $249k (4.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#285 in VA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• Hanover County Public School District (suburban): math 79% / reading 81% proficiency, ranked #5 of 131 in VA (top 4%) — strong family-tenant draw, lease renewals of 3-5y typical; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Market conditions: 96 active listings in the ZIP; 447 units permitted in Hanover County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Hanover County population projected at +11% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• Current owner paid $66k; list at $260k implies a 297% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.
• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wind risk, 20% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 1.7% in Wyndham — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.