5109 Village Way

Valdosta, GA 31632

$344,900D-

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,043 sqft · Built 2015 · SingleFamily · Pending · 90 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,334/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax + insurance: −$410
• HOA: −$10
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-385/mo
• Annual: $-4,615/yr
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• 1% rule: 0.68%
• Cash to close: $96,572

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (32.3% below list).
• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $233k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 62% / reading 53%, grade C+, #150 of 1,228 statewide, top 12%, 937 students, 41% FRL); Hahira Middle School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B+, #30 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 859 students, 32% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?