5109 Village Way · Valdosta, GA 31632

$344,900

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,043 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 90 Days on market

Built 2015 10,019 sqft lot Est $306k · 13% over $10/mo HOA

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Cash flow +7.8/30.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.9/10.0
• ARV discount +1.9/15.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

SELLER IS OFFERING A 1-YEAR HOME WARRANTY WITH AN ACCEPTED OFFER! Welcome home to this beautifully maintained 4-bedroom, 3-bath residence in the highly sought-after Carlton Ridge subdivision of Hahira, GA. Offering 2,043 sq. ft. of thoughtfully designed living space, this home perfectly blends comfort, style, and functionality. Step inside to a spacious, open layout featuring hardwood floors, tile, and plush carpet, creating a warm and inviting atmosphere throughout. The heart of the home is the stunning kitchen, showcasing beautiful granite countertops, a gorgeous herringbone backsplash, and all stainless steel appliances, including a smart refrigerator and smart microwave—perfect fo

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2015

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $345k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-385 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $277k (19.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $233k (32.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $233k (32.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#392 in GA) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, health & safety A+, housing A-; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Lowndes County (rural): math 59% / reading 52% proficiency, ranked #8 of 174 in GA (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Westside Elementary School (math 62% / reading 53%, grade C+, #150 of 1,228 statewide, top 12%, 937 students, 41% FRL); Hahira Middle School (math 65% / reading 63%, grade B+, #30 of 470 statewide, top 6%, 859 students, 32% FRL); Lowndes High School (math 69% / reading 51%, grade C+, #14 of 424 statewide, top 3%, 3,201 students, 39% FRL) — zoned schools at 37% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 198 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 896 units permitted in Lowndes County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $37k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $34k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Lowndes County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$59k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 90 days — a 6% lower offer ($324k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 2y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,421 (32.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 90 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 32% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
9. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
10. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
11. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.95%
• Cash-on-cash: -4.78%
• DSCR: 0.79
• GRM: 12.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $306,450
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5109 Village Way	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,043 (0%)	1mo	$349,900	$171	99
5041 Carlton Ridge Cir	0.04mi	4/3.0	2,084 (+2%)	6mo	$354,900	$170	90
5080 Carlton Ridge Cir	0.08mi	4/3.0	2,006 (-2%)	10mo	$355,000	$177	84
5084 Village Way	0.06mi	4/2.0	2,127 (+4%)	8mo	$319,500	$150	79
5196 Carlton Ridge Cir	0.10mi	4/3.0	2,145 (+5%)	15mo	$270,000	$126	75
5184 Carlton Rdg	0.13mi	4/2.0	2,000 (-2%)	22mo	$298,000	$149	68
5202 Carlton Ridge Cir	0.09mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,804 (-12%)	6mo	$262,000	$145	62

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.69×
• Total profit: $163,289
• Equity at exit: $310,713

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.9%
• Equity multiple: 6.18×
• Total profit: $500,001
• Equity at exit: $670,065

Cash invested: $96,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31632

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 198
• Price-to-rent: 12.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,334 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,809
• Tax from tax record: −$266 /mo · $3,194/yr
• Insurance: −$144
• HOA: −$10
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-385

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,821

Max offer price $276,967

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-189	-5% $-287	+0% $-385	+5% $-482	+10% $-580
Rent	-10% $-569	-5% $-477	+0% $-385	+5% $-292	+10% $-200
Rate	-1.0pp $-211	-0.5pp $-297	base $-385	+0.5pp $-474	+1.0pp $-565

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $86,225
• Closing costs: $10,347
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
5048 Planters Xing Hahira, GA	4.0	3.0	2160	$2,500	$1.16	22d	1	1.37mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $10 · $120/yr

Listing history 21 events

1. 2026-04-09
   historical
2. 2026-04-05
   status Pending
3. 2026-03-22
   price $344,900
4. 2026-01-25
   price $349,800
5. 2026-01-25
   price $349,800
6. 2026-01-04
   listed $349,900 New
7. 2026-01-01
   listed $349,900 Active
8. 2025-12-31
   historical
9. 2025-12-09
   price $349,900
10. 2025-12-09
    price $349,900
11. 2025-10-25
    price $354,900
12. 2025-10-25
    price $354,900
13. 2025-09-14
    listed $359,900 New
14. 2024-05-29
    soldstatus $320,000
15. 2024-05-24
    soldstatus $320,000 Closed
16. 2024-05-23
    status Pending
17. 2024-04-01
    historical Active Under Contract
18. 2024-03-08
    status Active
19. 2024-02-28
    status Pending
20. 2024-02-23
    listed $319,000 Active
21. 2007-02-07
    soldstatus $2,885,100

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,194 · $266/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,194 · $266/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · -0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 6/10 Major 9 unhealthy d/yr today · 13 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,011
• − Mortgage interest: −$19,320
• − Property taxes: −$3,194
• − Insurance: −$1,724
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,241
• − Management: −$2,241
• − HOA: −$120
• − Depreciation: −$10,033
• Taxable loss: −$10,863
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,607
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,008/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lowndes County
• NCES district ID: 1303390
• Math proficiency: 59% ▼ -1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 52% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $48,221
• Composite: 47.21/100
• National rank: #2317
• State rank: #8 of 174 in GA

Livability — Valdosta

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #392
• US rank: #19544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lowndes County · 107,801 people
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• Population (ZIP): 15,942
• Household income: $83,946
• Rent vs Own: 16.9% rent · 83.1% own
• Severe rent burden: 73.0

Population outlook (Lowndes County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 120,348 people
• By 2030: 123,469 · +2.6%
• By 2040: 128,482 · +6.8%
• By 2050: 131,907 · +9.6%
• By 2075: 139,080 · +15.6%
• By 2100: 133,649 · +11.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Black 12% Hispanic / Latino 6% Two or more races 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Serbian 2% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Lowndes

• 2024 margin: R (+18.0) · D 40.8% · R 58.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.6pp toward R · 2008: -9.4pp · 2024: -18.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+18.0 2020: R+12.0 2016: R+18.2 2012: R+10.5 2008: R+9.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 19.44%
• Current HPI: 259.01
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Valdosta, GA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-88.0% since first listed

21 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2026-04-05 Pending — SGMLS
• 2026-03-22 Price Changed $344,900 SGMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $349,800 SGMLS
• 2026-01-25 Price Changed $349,800 GAMLS
• 2026-01-04 Listed $349,900 GAMLS
• 2026-01-01 Listed $349,900 SGMLS
• 2025-12-31 Listing Removed — GAMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $349,900 SGMLS
• 2025-12-09 Price Changed $349,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $354,900 GAMLS
• 2025-10-25 Price Changed $354,900 SGMLS
• 2025-09-14 Listed $359,900 GAMLS
• 2024-05-29 Sold (Public Records) $320,000 Public Records
• 2024-05-24 Sold (MLS) $320,000 SGMLS
• 2024-05-23 Pending — SGMLS
• 2024-04-01 Contingent — SGMLS
• 2024-03-08 Relisted — SGMLS
• 2024-02-28 Pending — SGMLS
• 2024-02-23 Listed $319,000 SGMLS
• 2007-02-07 Sold (Public Records) $2,885,100 Public Records

Property tax history

+20.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,194 · +5.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.