1146 Johnston Chapel Rd

Summit, MS 39666

$80,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Built 2018 · Manufactured · Active · 81 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,582/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax + insurance: −$121
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $709/mo
• Annual: $8,510/yr
• Cap rate: 16.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.99%
• DSCR: 2.69
• 1% rule: 1.98%
• Cash to close: $22,400

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• It's been on market 81 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#172 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, amenities F, commute F.
• North Pike School District (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 130 in MS (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: North Pike Elementary School (math 37% / reading 42%, grade F, #122 of 375 statewide, top 34%, 806 students, 100% FRL); North Pike Junior High School (math 26% / reading 24%, grade F, #99 of 179 statewide, top 55%, 353 students, 100% FRL); North Pike Senior High School (math 22% / reading 32%, grade F, #101 of 197 statewide, top 54%, 697 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 100% FRL vs 54% district-wide (46 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 81 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.