1146 Johnston Chapel Rd · Summit, MS 39666

$80,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 80 Days on market

Built 2018 5.00 ac lot $74/sqft · 56% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.4/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to 1146 Johnson Chapel Rd in Summit, Mississippi, calling all investors and visionaries. This property is a true opportunity for someone ready to take on a project and create value. Nestled in a quiet, private setting, the land offers space, potential, and the kind of canvas that's getting harder to find. The home itself is not move-in ready and requires significant renovation. This is a complete fixer in need of serious TLC, making it best suited for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity through improvements. The property also includes additional structures, including a guest house (featured in the photos) and a mobile home that will require work as well, adding even more potential for those with the right vision. Please note: • Photos have been virtually cleaned up for presentation purposes. If you've been waiting for a property where you can renovate, rebuild, or reimagine from the ground up, this is your chance to step in and bring it back to life.

Key facts

• Guest house
• Private setting
• 5 acre lot

Tags

• PRIVATE SETTING
• ADDITIONAL STRUCTURES
• GUEST HOUSE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $709 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $80k).
• Recommended offer: $75k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 62/100 on livability (#172 in MS) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: health & safety C-, schools F, amenities F.
• North Pike School District (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #69 of 130 in MS (top 53%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 79 active listings in the ZIP; 10 units permitted in Pike County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Pike County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 80 days — a 6% lower offer ($75k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $75,200 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 80 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.98% ✓
• Cap rate: 16.93%
• Cash-on-cash: 37.99%
• DSCR: 2.69
• GRM: 4.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $202,477
• List price: $80,000
• Delta: -60.49%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 34.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.44×
• Total profit: $32,222
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 40.9%
• Equity multiple: 4.85×
• Total profit: $86,287
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Mississippi: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+11
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; very landlord-favorable; no rent control.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 39666

• Home prices YoY: -34.3%
• Active inventory: 79
• Price-to-rent: 4.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,582 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$88 /mo · $1,053/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$332
• Net cashflow: $709

Break-even live

Break-even rent $684

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 50%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $754	-5% $732	+0% $709	+5% $687	+10% $664
Rent	-10% $584	-5% $647	+0% $709	+5% $772	+10% $834
Rate	-1.0pp $749	-0.5pp $730	base $709	+0.5pp $688	+1.0pp $667

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $80,000 Active 80 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $80,000 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $80,000 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $80,000 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $80,000 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $80,000 Active 73 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $80,000 Active 72 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $80,000 Active 69 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $80,000 Active 68 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 67 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $80,000 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $80,000 Active 63 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $80,000 Active 62 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $80,000 Active 61 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $80,000 Active 60 DOM
16. 2026-04-01
    listed $80,000 Active 1012-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1012 chars)

    Welcome to 1146 Johnson Chapel Rd in Summit, Mississippi, calling all investors and visionaries. This property is a true opportunity for someone ready to take on a project and create value. Nestled in a quiet, private setting, the land offers space, potential, and the kind of canvas that's getting harder to find. The home itself is not move-in ready and requires significant renovation. This is a complete fixer in need of serious TLC, making it best suited for investors, flippers, or buyers looking to build equity through improvements. The property also includes additional structures, including a guest house (featured in the photos) and a mobile home that will require work as well, adding even more potential for those with the right vision. Please note: • Photos have been virtually cleaned up for presentation purposes. If you've been waiting for a property where you can renovate, rebuild, or reimagine from the ground up, this is your chance to step in and bring it back to life.

17. 2004-01-21
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MS · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,053 · $88/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,984
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$1,053
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,519
• − Management: −$1,519
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $7,685
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,844
• After-tax cash flow: $6,666/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: North Pike School District
• NCES district ID: 2803240
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 32% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $41,558
• Composite: 24.13/100
• National rank: #7748
• State rank: #69 of 130 in MS

Livability — Summit

• Score: 62/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #16320

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 11,985

Population outlook (Pike County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 38,766 people
• By 2030: 37,874 · -2.3%
• By 2040: 35,743 · -7.8%
• By 2050: 33,276 · -14.2%
• By 2075: 26,799 · -30.9%
• By 2100: 18,562 · -52.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Black 36% Two or more races 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 2% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 0% · China

Political lean MEDSL · Pike

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.8% · R 51.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.0pp toward R · 2008: 3.5pp · 2024: -3.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+3.5 2020: D+1.0 2016: R+0.7 2012: D+7.6 2008: D+3.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -59.48%
• Current HPI: 113.9026
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-01 Listed $80,000 MLSU
• 2004-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+3.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,053 · -12.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.