3 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,137 sqft ·
Built 1981
· SingleFamily
· Pending
· 25 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$1,215/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$891
Tax + insurance
−$382
HOA
−$0
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$255
Net cashflow
$-313/mo
Annual
$-3,753/yr
Cap rate
4.08%
Cash-on-cash
-7.89%
DSCR
0.65
1% rule
0.72%
Cash to close
$47,572
Investor read
This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $170k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-313 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (32.5% below list).
To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $122k (28.5% below list).
It's been on market 25 days — a 2% lower offer ($167k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $115k (32.5% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
Location reads 76/100 on livability (#119 in TX, #3,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: employment D, amenities F, commute F.
Mcallen ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #440 of 826 in TX (top 53%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
Zoned schools: Seguin El (math 22% / reading 27%, grade F, #3,052 of 4,322 statewide, top 74%, 577 students, 96% FRL); De Leon Middle (math 20% / reading 38%, grade F, #1,103 of 1,662 statewide, top 67%, 800 students, 86% FRL); Rowe H S (math 25% / reading 53%, grade F, #859 of 1,632 statewide, top 53%, 1,944 students, 74% FRL) — zoned schools average 85% FRL vs 50% district-wide (35 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 385 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 7,378 units permitted in Hidalgo County in 2024 (641 in 5+ unit buildings).
Hidalgo County population projected at +28% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
3 sale attempts since 12y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
This rent runs 30% of the median local income ($48k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.
CashFlowRE · CFR-6SVZKV2KX66XP6
· Data 2 weeks agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29