13021 Pembroke Dr

Vineyards, FL 34105

$599,000F

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 957 sqft · Built 2021 · Townhouse · Active · 28 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,245/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$3,141
• Tax + insurance: −$811
• HOA: −$370
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$472
• Net cashflow: $-2,548/mo
• Annual: $-30,579/yr
• Cap rate: 1.49%
• Cash-on-cash: -17.14%
• DSCR: 0.24
• 1% rule: 0.37%
• Cash to close: $167,720

Investor read

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $599k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-3k ($-31k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $149k (75.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $225k (62.5% below list).
• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($590k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $149k (75.2% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $18k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#679 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A-; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $152/mo.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 329 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 14d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• 4 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask is 17518% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AH (mandatory federal flood insurance); severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→29/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.