3601 Homestead Way #53

Ceres, CA 95307

$25,000D

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Built 1973 · Manufactured · Active · 55 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,460/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax + insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $981/mo
• Annual: $11,770/yr
• Cap rate: 53.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 168.14%
• DSCR: 8.48
• 1% rule: 5.84%
• Cash to close: $7,000

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $981 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Cesar Chavez Junior High (662 students, 83% FRL); Ceres High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,777 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 53.4% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.