3601 Homestead Way #53 · Ceres, CA 95307

$25,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 648 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 1973 $39/sqft · 59% below area

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Located in a desirable 55+ community in Ceres, this manufactured home offers convenient access to shopping, dining, and Highway 99, including nearby Walmart Supercenter. Current space rent is $825/month (subject to change). This 1-bedroom, 1-bath home presents a great opportunity for a buyer looking to add their personal touch. While it does need some TLC, it offers solid potential and the chance to customize the space to your liking. Ideal for someone seeking an affordable place to call home in a well-located senior community.

Key facts

• Convenient access
• Customize the space
• Shopping dining

Tags

• CONVENIENT ACCESS
• SHOPPING DINING
• HIGHWAY 99
• NEARBY WALMART SUPERCENTER
• CUSTOMIZE THE SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Land lease amount noted (amount provided in source data)
• HOA & community: Not part of an association; Located in a senior community; Land lease listed (amount shown separately)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached covered parking for 2 vehicles
• Utilities: Electric: Other; Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Manufactured in park (single wide); Built in 1973; Described as fixer / original condition
• Construction: Aluminum skirting; Oakridge manufactured home
• Exterior features: Tar/gravel, foam, and metal roofing materials; Outbuilding / shed(s) on property

Interior

• Kitchen: Laminate counters
• Bedrooms: 1 bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet; Linoleum
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom with tub/shower over
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: Covered patio and porch; Porch; Pets allowed; Living room with unspecified additional features
• Laundry & utility: No laundry hookups on site (none listed); Other laundry option noted

🏷️ Possibly a rental listed for sale. The $25,000 price doesn't fit this home's estimated sale value (~$61,572) and the remarks read like a rental — treat the cards below with caution.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $25k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $981 ($12k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $25k).
• Recommended offer: $24k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 53.4% vs local median 3.8% in Ceres — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#923 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment C-, crime D+, amenities F.
• Ceres Unified (suburban): math 15% / reading 50% proficiency, ranked #303 of 517 in CA (top 59%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 69% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Lucas Elementary (653 students, 76% FRL); Cesar Chavez Junior High (662 students, 83% FRL); Ceres High (math 17% / reading 52%, grade F, #618 of 1,170 statewide, top 56%, 1,777 students, 83% FRL).
• Market conditions: 90 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 923 units permitted in Stanislaus County in 2024 (63 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $173 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $750 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Stanislaus County population projected at +14% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $7k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($24k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→14/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $24,250 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1973 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.84% ✓
• Cap rate: 53.37%
• Cash-on-cash: 168.14%
• DSCR: 8.48
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $61,572
• List price: $25,000
• Delta: -59.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 10 within 2.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3513 Buffalo Way #42	0.04mi	2/1.0 (+1)	660 (+2%)	16mo	$56,000	$85	77

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 9.35×
• Total profit: $58,438
• Equity at exit: $3,728

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 19.77×
• Total profit: $131,413
• Equity at exit: $2,162

Cash invested: $7,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95307

• Active inventory: 90
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,460 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$131
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$31 /mo · $375/yr
• Insurance: −$10
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$307
• Net cashflow: $981

Break-even live

Break-even rent $219

Max offer price $25,000

Occupancy floor 28%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $998	-5% $989	+0% $981	+5% $972	+10% $964
Rent	-10% $865	-5% $923	+0% $981	+5% $1,038	+10% $1,096
Rate	-1.0pp $993	-0.5pp $987	base $981	+0.5pp $974	+1.0pp $968

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $6,250
• Closing costs: $750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2250 5th St Unit 11 Ceres, CA	2.0	1.0	700	$1,395	$1.99	25d	1	1.13mi

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $25,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $25,000 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $25,000 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $25,000 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $25,000 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $25,000 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $25,000 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $25,000 Active 44 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $25,000 Active 43 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $25,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $25,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    days on market $25,000 Active 38 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $25,000 Active 37 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $25,000 Active 36 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $25,000 Active 35 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $25,000 Active 34 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $25,000 Active 33 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 34 unhealthy d/yr today · 37 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,523
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,400
• − Property taxes: −$375
• − Insurance: −$125
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,402
• − Management: −$1,402
• − Depreciation: −$727
• Taxable income: $12,091
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,902
• After-tax cash flow: $8,868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ceres Unified
• NCES district ID: 0608130
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 50% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $48,178
• Composite: 27.96/100
• National rank: #6858
• State rank: #303 of 517 in CA

Livability — Ceres

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #923
• US rank: #24224

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D+ Employment C- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ceres, CA
• County: Stanislaus County · 445,786 people
• City population: 46,310
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• Population (ZIP): 46,310
• Household income: $80,627
• Rent vs Own: 33.0% rent · 67.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 1102.0

Population outlook (Stanislaus County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 579,493 people
• By 2030: 598,000 · +3.2%
• By 2040: 630,930 · +8.9%
• By 2050: 658,300 · +13.6%
• By 2075: 712,363 · +22.9%
• By 2100: 719,805 · +24.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Hispanic (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 64% Two or more races 34% White 23% Asian 8% Black 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 61%
• Common ancestry: Russian 3% Lithuanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 27% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 41% English-only · Spanish 49% Other Indo-European 7% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Stanislaus

• 2024 margin: R (+11.0) · D 43.2% · R 54.2% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.7pp toward R · 2008: 1.7pp · 2024: -11.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.0 2020: D+0.8 2016: D+0.6 2012: D+0.7 2008: D+1.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -362.75%
• Current HPI: 307.5192
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Modesto, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B