2 bd · 2.0 ba ·
1,132 sqft ·
Built 1981
· Condo
· Active
· 116 DOM
Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)
Estimated rent
$2,820/mo
Mortgage (P&I)
−$1,468
Tax + insurance
−$403
HOA
−$651
Vac / Maint / Mgmt
−$592
Net cashflow
$-295/mo
Annual
$-3,539/yr
Cap rate
5.31%
Cash-on-cash
-3.50%
DSCR
0.84
1% rule
1.01%
Cash to close
$78,400
Investor read
This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath condo listed at $280k.
At list price, monthly cash flow is $-295 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $228k (18.6% below list).
Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $280k).
It's been on market 116 days — a 9% lower offer ($255k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
Recommended offer: $228k (18.6% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
In year one you build about $10k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $8k appreciation (3.0% local appreciation)).
Location reads 80/100 on livability (#126 in FL, #1,903 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: crime A+, amenities A+, employment A+; Watch: commute D+, cost of living F.
Collier (suburban): math 60% / reading 56% proficiency, ranked #16 of 73 in FL (top 22%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
Zoned schools: Shadowlawn Elementary School (math 44% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,403 of 2,144 statewide, top 67%, 457 students, 72% FRL); East Naples Middle School (math 56% / reading 44%, grade C, #254 of 571 statewide, top 45%, 854 students, 63% FRL); Lely High School (math 40% / reading 39%, grade F, #304 of 667 statewide, top 47%, 1,504 students, 54% FRL).
Zoned-school proficiency averages 44% at this address vs 58% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Collier average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 23% of rent.
Market conditions: 2 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 3,520 units permitted in Collier County in 2024 (959 in 5+ unit buildings).
Collier County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$35k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
Climate carrying-cost: severe flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→28/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
Questions for listing agent
What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
It's been on market 116 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
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· Data 2 h agocashflowre.app · 2026-05-29