515 River Rd #23

Rio Vista, CA 94571

$35,000B-

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Built — · Manufactured · Active · 140 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $1,185/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax + insurance: −$485
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $268/mo
• Annual: $3,217/yr
• Cap rate: 30.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.05%
• DSCR: 4.78
• 1% rule: 3.39%
• Cash to close: $9,800

Investor read

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#973 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• River Delta Joint Unified (town): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #810 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D. H. White Elementary (404 students, 58% FRL); Riverview Middle (165 students, 54% FRL); Rio Vista High (367 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 6→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 2.2% in Rio Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
• How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Repairs flagged (vision-AI assessment)

• Moderate: kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate: bathroom vanity — dated and in need of updating
• Minor: exterior siding — slight wear