515 River Rd #23 · Rio Vista, CA 94571

$35,000

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 672 sqft · Manufactured · 140 Days on market

Manufactured home Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to this charming and affordable mobile home located in a well-established Delta community in Rio Vista. Situated within the park, offering access to a community fishing pier and incredible Sacramento River views. This location truly shines with its proximity to the city, you’re just minutes from downtown Rio Vista, local restaurants, shops, and everyday conveniences, while still enjoying the laid-back Delta atmosphere while also making it easy to enjoy boating, fishing, and peaceful river moments just steps away. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or an affordable way to enjoy the Delta lifestyle, this home offers comfort, convenience, and community, all in one.

Key facts

• Local restaurants
• Listed 139 days

Tags

• SACRAMENTO RIVER VIEWS
• LOCAL RESTAURANTS
• LAID-BACK DELTA ATMOSPHERE

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $35k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $268 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $35k).
• Recommended offer: $31k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 30.1% vs local median 2.2% in Rio Vista — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#973 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+, crime A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, cost of living F.
• River Delta Joint Unified (town): math 31% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #810 of 1,400 in CA (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: D. H. White Elementary (404 students, 58% FRL); Riverview Middle (165 students, 54% FRL); Rio Vista High (367 students, 50% FRL) — zoned schools at 54% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 1,472 units permitted in Solano County in 2024 (131 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $242 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Solano County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $10k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 140 days — a 12% lower offer ($31k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 4y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $427/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: in FEMA flood zone AE (mandatory federal flood insurance); extreme-heat days projected 6→10/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $30,800 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 140 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 3.39% ✓
• Cap rate: 30.11%
• Cash-on-cash: 85.05%
• DSCR: 4.78
• GRM: 2.5

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.4%
• Equity multiple: 2.19×
• Total profit: $11,682
• Equity at exit: $5,219

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.40×
• Total profit: $33,295
• Equity at exit: $3,026

Cash invested: $9,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 94571

• Home prices YoY: -34.9%
• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 2.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,185 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$184
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$44 /mo · $525/yr
• Insurance: −$15
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$427 /mo · $5,118/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Lot rent leased land?: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$249
• Net cashflow: $268

Break-even live

Break-even rent $846

Max offer price $35,000

Occupancy floor 72%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $292	-5% $280	+0% $268	+5% $256	+10% $244
Rent	-10% $174	-5% $221	+0% $268	+5% $315	+10% $362
Rate	-1.0pp $286	-0.5pp $277	base $268	+0.5pp $259	+1.0pp $250

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $8,750
• Closing costs: $1,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $35,000 Active 140 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $35,000 Active 139 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $35,000 Active 136 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $35,000 Active 135 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $35,000 Active 134 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $35,000 Active 133 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 131 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $35,000 Active 130 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $35,000 Active 127 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $35,000 Active 126 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $35,000 Active 125 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $35,000 Active 121 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $35,000 Active 120 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $35,000 Active 119 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $35,000 Active 118 DOM
16. 2026-02-02
    listed $35,000 Active 726-char remark

    Show marketing remark (726 chars)

    Welcome to this charming and affordable mobile home located in a well-established Delta community in Rio Vista. Situated within the park, offering access to a community fishing pier and incredible Sacramento River views. This location truly shines with its proximity to the city, you’re just minutes from downtown Rio Vista, local restaurants, shops, and everyday conveniences, while still enjoying the laid-back Delta atmosphere while also making it easy to enjoy boating, fishing, and peaceful river moments just steps away. Whether you’re looking for a full-time residence, a weekend retreat, or an affordable way to enjoy the Delta lifestyle, this home offers comfort, convenience, and community, all in one.

17. 2022-12-25
    historical
18. 2022-11-07
    status Pending
19. 2022-10-13
    listed New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone AE · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 6 d/yr ≥100°F today · 10 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 19 unhealthy d/yr today · 20 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,225
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,961
• − Property taxes: −$525
• − Insurance: −$5,294
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,138
• − Management: −$1,138
• − Depreciation: −$1,018
• Taxable income: $3,152
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$756
• After-tax cash flow: $2,460/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This mobile home is in good condition with cosmetic updates needed to modernize the kitchen and bathroom. The home is move-in ready with a good foundation and structure.

Repairs flagged

• Moderate kitchen cabinets — dated and in need of updating
• Moderate bathroom vanity — dated and in need of updating
• Minor exterior siding — slight wear

Value-add opportunities

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers
• Resale update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would attract more buyers
• Both paint exterior — improving curb appeal would attract more buyers and renters
• Both landscaping — improving landscaping would attract more buyers and renters

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
kitchen cabinets · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
bathroom vanity · dated and in need of updating	Moderate	$3,000–15,000
exterior siding · slight wear	Minor	$500–3,000
Total estimated repair cost · 3 items		$6,500–33,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale update kitchen cabinets and countertops — modernizing the kitchen would attract more buyers ↑
• Resale update bathroom vanity and fixtures — modernizing the bathroom would attract more buyers ↑
• Both paint exterior — improving curb appeal would attract more buyers and renters ↑
• Both landscaping — improving landscaping would attract more buyers and renters ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: River Delta Joint Unified
• NCES district ID: 0633110
• Math proficiency: 31% ▲ 1.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $55,528
• Composite: 34.67/100
• National rank: #10066
• State rank: #810 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Rio Vista

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #973
• US rank: #24576

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings D

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rio Vista, CA
• Population (ZIP): 10,973

Population outlook (Solano County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 478,685 people
• By 2030: 497,974 · +4.0%
• By 2040: 528,515 · +10.4%
• By 2050: 549,115 · +14.7%
• By 2075: 587,229 · +22.7%
• By 2100: 571,378 · +19.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.61)
• Race & ethnicity: White 56% Hispanic / Latino 25% Black 10% Two or more races 8% Asian 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Lithuanian 3% Italian 3%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 17% Chinese 2% Tagalog/Filipino 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Solano

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+23.0) · D 60.0% · R 37.1% · Other 2.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -5.6pp toward R · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 23.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+23.0 2020: D+30.3 2016: D+30.5 2012: D+28.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -120.24%
• Current HPI: 223.9284
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-02 Listed $35,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-12-25 Listing Removed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-11-07 Pending — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2022-10-13 Listed — bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR