Avalon Plan

Venus, TX 76084

$299,990D

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,550 sqft · Built — · SingleFamily · Active · 234 DOM

Cashflow @ list (25.0% down · 7.5%)

• Estimated rent: $2,353/mo
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,582
• Tax + insurance: −$503
• HOA: −$0
• Vac / Maint / Mgmt: −$494
• Net cashflow: $-227/mo
• Annual: $-2,719/yr
• Cap rate: 5.39%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.22%
• DSCR: 0.86
• 1% rule: 0.78%
• Cash to close: $84,491

Investor read

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.
• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-227 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $269k (10.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $235k (21.6% below list).
• It's been on market 234 days — a 12% lower offer ($264k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Recommended offer: $235k (21.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• In year one you build about $24k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $22k appreciation (7.3% local appreciation)).
• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#356 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Venus ISD (town): math 25% / reading 32% proficiency, ranked #646 of 826 in TX (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Venus El (math 27% / reading 30%, grade F, #2,706 of 4,322 statewide, top 63%, 658 students, 82% FRL); Venus Middle (math 20% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,222 of 1,662 statewide, top 74%, 491 students, 80% FRL); Venus H S (math 32% / reading 35%, grade F, #1,011 of 1,632 statewide, top 63%, 725 students, 76% FRL) — zoned schools average 79% FRL vs 60% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.4%/yr); 427 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 18d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,152 units permitted in Johnson County in 2024 (76 in 5+ unit buildings).
• Johnson County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$39k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.
• Cap rate 5.4% vs local median 3.0% in Venus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Questions for listing agent

• What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
• It's been on market 234 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
• Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
• Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
• Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
• The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
• What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
• What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.